Rybakina, Andreeva, Noskova, and......?

The unpredictability of the WTA is a feature that I enjoy, though--at times--real tennis fans know that the "surprises" aren't surprises at all. This year, for example, two of the tour's most talented upstarts--Mirra Andreeva and Linda Noskova--won majors. And while it was a bit of a surprise that Andreeva's first major victory was achieved on the clay courts of Roland-Garros, it felt to me that her holding a major trophy was something that happened right on time. And while Noskova has remained much more under the radar than Andreeva, it was also only a matter of time before she broke through.

Elena Rybakina, the opposite of an upstart, wasn't a "surprise" champion in Australia, but her months of struggling with illness and coaching issues made her vulnerable. The 2022 Wimbledon champion, who--on a good day--can beat anyone and make it look easy, overcame her problems and burned through the draw, taking out Iga Swiatek, Jessica Pegula, and--in the final--world number 1 and two-time champion Aryna Sabalenka.

Is there a true favorite to win this year's U.S. Open? I don't think so. Defending champion Sabalenka, who also won the event in 2024, will be highly motivated, given that she has yet to win a major this year (she did win the Sunshine Double, which is no small feat). Rybakina, Andreeva, Noskova, and Sabalenka are all hard court threats. But these are not the only contenders.

Jessica Pegula has never won a major, though every year, she appears to be closer to doing so. I've always thought that the U.S. Open would provide her with her best opportunity, and the world number 3, whose steadiness and consistency has served her well for a long time, is certainly a contender. 

Is Swiatek a contender? I say yes. The former world number 1, who won the event in 2022, has had a hard time of it lately, and is currently not considered a major contender at any big event. But things can change. Last year, when so many people said that she was in a major slump, she went to London and won Wimbledon. And while 2026 may not be the year that Swiatek gets it together again, it wouldn't be a total surprise if she did.

2023 champion Coco Gauff can certainly be considered a contender, though she has yet to win any kind of title this year. She did, however, reach the semifinals at Wimbledon. Gauff reached the U.S. Open round of 16 in 2024 and 2025, losing to Emma Navarro and Naomi Osaka, respectively. 

And then there's Alex Eala, the 21-year-old lefty from the Philippines, who has become the rising star on the tour. Eala just won her first tour title--a WTA 500 event--in which she defeated Pegula in the final in Washington, DC. She also reached the round of 16 at Wimbledon, after upsetting Swiatek in the third round. Eala's rise reminds me somewhat of Garbine Muguruza's--there is a sense of inevitability about her game. She will certainly be a threat at the U.S. Open.

Mentioning contenders and including only one Czech player who isn't named "Krejckova" or "Muchova" feels strange. Muchova, as long as she stays healthy, is hardly a long shot to win any major. Two-time major champion Krejickova, who has reached the U.S. Open quarterfinal twice, should be a contender. However, she still doesn't appear to be back to the form that she was in prior to her falling to the Czech Curse of chronic injury and illness. 

There are others who could make big appearances the second week of the U.S. Open. Marta Kostyuk comes to mind immediately. Kostyuk's athleticism, combined with her much-improved mental strength, could help her to go far. Elina Svitolina and Iva Jovic are also two to watch. 2025 runner-up Amanda Anisimova isn't in the same form that she was in last year, but she also shouldn't be counted out. And--for all we know--someone could come "out of nowhere" to claim the year's last major title.