During the 2026 clay season, we’ve had four 500-level tournaments and two 1000-level tournaments, which means that we’ve had six champions—and none of them is named Swiatek or Sabalenka. And while winning a pre-French Open clay court tournament—even a 1000—doesn’t always translate to winning the French Open, we would have been within our rights to think that the above mentioned players would each have won one. Or that at least one of them would have won one.
Four-time French Open champion Iga Swiatek has been off her game for a while, though, in Rome, we saw a lot of that Iga—the one who came charging in in 2020 and won the title without dropping a set. Swiatek would go on to win the tournament in 2022, 2023 and 2024.
The Polish star has yet to win a title of any kind in 2026, but a recent coaching change, whose results were manifested in Rome, shows much promise. When asked, in a press conference in Rome, whether we can now say that she’s “coming back,” Swiatek replied, “Where was I?” Exactly.
As for world number 1 Aryna Sabalenka, her story is a bit different. She had to withdraw from Stuttgart because of an injury, so she began her clay season in Madrid, where she reached the quarterfinals. She was defeated in that round by Hailey Baptiste, despite having held six match points. In Rome, Sabalenka was up a set and a break in the third round, but lost to a resurgent Sorana Cirstea (it was, in fact, the Romanian’s first defeat of a number 1 player).
Sabalenka has won four hard court majors, and last year, she came close to adding a very big clay court title—she reached the final of the French Open, but lost to Coco Gauff.
In the four 500 tournaments of 2026, we’ve had four champions. Jessica Pegula, the defending champion in Charleston, won the title again. She did it the hard way, and earned the nickname, Three-Set Jess. Mirra Andreeva won the Linz title, Elena Rybakina won in Stuttgart (her second title there), and Emma Navarro--who has been dealing with a chronic illness for a year and a half--upset top seed Vicky Mboko in the Strasbourg final.
The drama in both Madrid and Rome was increased because of the standings of the champions. Marta Kostyuk won the Madrid title. Kostyuk—who had just won a 250-level tournament in France—had a tough draw, which included Pegula, Linda Noskova and Anastasia Potapova. In the past, the very talented Ukrainian player might have lost her way, but the Marta Kostyuk of today is calmer on court, and more able to make smart shot decisions.
The winner in Rome was Elina Svitolina, and this was her third Rome title. Svitolina last won Rome in 2018, and so much has changed in her life since then. Always a talented player, whose movement was considered her greatest asset, Svitolina’s tennis career was interrupted by marriage, childbirth, and an ongoing war. Upon returning to the tour after her maternity leave, the Ukrainian star was a different player, with a better serve, more variety, and bigger hitting. This year in Rome, she did what few could do: She defeated Rybakina in the quarterfinals, Swiatek in the semifinals, and Gauff in the final.
So who is the most likely to win at Roland Garros? Anyone’s guess is good at this point. Sadly, 2021 champion Barbora Krejcikova sustained another injury last week while playing in the final of a 125 event. Krejcikova is now a victim of the Czech Curse, which has already put both Karolina Muchova (who is currently healthy) and Marketa Vondrousova out of commission for months at a time. Muchova, a French Open finalist in 2023, doesn’t have the momentum that we would expect a contender to have, but she could nevertheless make things difficult for other top players in Paris.
Coco Gauff is the defending champion in Paris, and—while her results lately have been inconsistent—Gauff is capable of showing up in her best form. Whatever wobbles she has, she also tends to have a champion’s mind when she plays in big events.
Elena Rybakina has won a major on a hard court and a major on grass, and there’s no reason—given the strength of her game—that she can’t win one on clay. Rybakina’s serve makes her dangerous on any surface, and her steadiness on court has returned.
Mirra Andreeva—-though she is sometimes distracted by her own emotions—is no stranger to a big stage. In addition to reaching the French Open semifinals in 2024, the Russian star has also won two 1000-level tournaments.
As for Kostyuk—the success she’s having has been a long time coming. Between improving her game and settling her mentality, the Ukrainian star has established herself as someone whom no one will want to see on the other side of the net at Roland Garros.
And that brings me to Svitolina, who can now be considered a complete player, and one who is—in my opinion—a real contender in Paris. Her performance in Rome was a feat that few could have pulled off, and there’s no reason to think that the clay in Paris will intimidate her.
Swiatek is likely to have her work cut out for her, for—if things go as they “should” go—she’ll face Alona Ostapenko in the third round. Ostapenko is 6-0 against Swiatek, and—more than any other player on the tour—has figured out how to flummox the former world number 1 and four-time French Open champion. Ostapenko’s formula is a simple one: Don’t give Swiatek any time to set up her shots. One would think that—by now—Swiatek would have a strategy to counter Ostapenko’s speed and aggression. We’ll see.
Sabalenka and Gauff are both in the upper half of the draw, while Rybakina and Swiatek (along with Svitolina and Kostyuk) are in the bottom half. Every major draw is very competitive, but—since there is no clear favorite in Paris this year—the draw seems especially competitive.
We won’t have to wait for the competition to heat, though. 17th seed Iva Jovic and Alex Eala meet in the first round, which feels unfair, but it’s just the (bad) luck of the draw. Also of interest in the first round: 2025 semifinalist
Lois Boisson—who has had her share of injury woes—will face 22nd seed Anna Kalinskaya, and 2021 champion Krejcikova will play 26th seed Hailey Baptiste.
