Forget the Emmys--Gauff and Muchova gave us all the TV drama we could handle

KAROLINA MUCHOVA WON THIS POINT

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— The Tennis Letter (@thetennisletter.bsky.social) July 9, 2026 at 10:03 AM

We knew that it was going to be good. We knew that it would include every shot known (we get that from Muchova alone). But maybe we didn't know just how crazy dramatic the Wimbledon semifinal--and, to be specific, the third set tiebreak--played by Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova, would be. Muchova, already known for her artistry on the court (but also known for her hard hitting and excellent serve), put on one of her best shows, which included hitting a winner from a complete dive. But she also experienced transient abdominal pain on her right side, and--toward the end--she slipped and fell while reaching for a volley.

As for Gauff, she repeatedly flummoxed her opponent, just when Muchova gained momentum. In other words, she was Coco Gauff. The scoreline pretty much defines the match: 6-2, 1-6, 7-6 (10). Muchova dominated, then Gauff dominated, and then they went after each other as though, well--as though a spot in the Wimbledon championship match depended on it. 

Muchova, who saved a match point, won the two hour and thirty-five minute match, and--while I don't like to say it--the Czech star's abdominal pain doesn't register the way it might if another player experienced it. Muchova's career stats, in my opinion (and I'm not alone), should have some majors listed. But years of chronic injury (the Czech Curse) have kept her from achieving so many things. Let's hope that, this time, this is just a routine stitch that will heal with rest and treatment.

Prior to today, Muchova was 1-6 against Gauff. This is her second major final. In 2023, she reached the final of Roland-Garros, in which she was defeated by Iga Swiatek.

The second semifinal featured another Czech player, Linda Noskova, and Ukrainian star Marta Kostyuk. And, while Kostyuk's performance throughout the tournament has been outstanding, there were too many times today when "the old Kustyuk" made an appearance on the court. She was up against an opponent who was both powerful and deadly accurate, and she struggled to figure out how to handle her. That struggle appeared to take away some of Kostyuk's confidence, and--though she had some brilliant moments--she was unable to solve the problem that was Noskova, who kept her under constant pressure.

Muchova and Noskova have played each other only once, at last year's U.S. Open, and Muchova won that match.

Paths to the final:

KAROLINA MUCHVOVA (10) 
round 1--d. Anastasia Zakharova
round 2--d. Zhang Shuai
round 3--d. Mananchaya Sawangkaew (Q)
round of 16--d. Barbora Krejcikova
quarterfinals--d. Naomi Osaka (14)
semifinals--d. Coco Gauff (7) 

LINDA NOSKOVA (9)
round 1--d. Ella Seidel
round 2--d. Camila Osorio 
round 3--d. Sorana Cirstea (17)
round of 16--d. Madison Keys (26)
quarterfinals--d. Elise Mertens (25)
semifinals--d. Marta Kostyuk (12)

Gauff and Muchova weren't the only ones locked in to a tight third set tiebreak. Six-time Wimbledon champion Diede de Groot was pushed hard by her doubles partner, Aniek Van Koot, in the quarterfinals of the women's wheelchair singles competition. de Groot, seeded 2nd, defeated Van Koot 6-4, 7-6 (12). She will face 3rd seed Li Xiaohui.

In doubles, Guo Hanyu and Kiki Mladenovic, seeded 10th, will play Jiang Xinyu in the semifinals. In the other semifinal match, 13th seeds Shuko Aoyama and Liang En-Shuo will compete against 2nd seeds Gaby Dabrowski and Luisa Stafani. Guo and Mladenovic upset top seeds Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend in the quarterfinals. (Back in the day, I used to say that Anybody and Mladenovic was a winning team. It's interesting that here she is, taking out Siniakova in a major.

Arevalo/Ostapenko take the Mixed Doubles Title after a 4-6, 7-5, 6-2 win over Polmans/Hunter First Wimbledon title for both.

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— Tennis Updates (@tennisupdates.bsky.social) July 9, 2026 at 2:50 PM

Finally, we have winners! Alona Ostapenko and Marcelo Arevalo, seeded 2nd, won the mixed doubles title today when they defeated Storm Hunter and Marc Polmans 3-6, 7-5, 6-2 in the final. This is Ostapenko's first mixed doubles title. She and Lyudmyla Kichenok won the U.S. Open women's doubles title in 2024. 

Fact Czech: They're still dominating the Wimbledon draw

Having exited Wimbledon in the first round in each of her previous four visits, Karolina Muchova is into the semifinals following a 7-6, 6-4 victory over Naomi Osaka. She will meet Coco Gauff for a place in Saturday's final.

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— The Athletic (@theathletic.com) July 7, 2026 at 12:37 PM

There are only four women left standing at Wimbledon, and two of them are Czech players. This shouldn't come as a surprise; Czechs excel on the grass. Martina Navratilova (who won the tournament twice before she changed her citizenship), Jana Novotna, Petra Kvitova, Marketa Vondruosova, and Barbora Krejcikova all won in London (Kvitova won twice). And now, there's a chance for another Czech player to lift the Venus Rosewater dish.

Yesterday, Karolina Muchova--who should have had a brilliant career by now, but the Czech Curse (chronic injury) has repeatedly taken her off of the tour and quashed her momentum) defeated Naomi Osaka in straight sets (7-6, 6-4). Muchova is known for her breathtaking artistry on the court--so much so that she sometimes doesn't get credit for her hard hitting and excellent serve. The Wimbledon semifinal is the sixth one that the Czech star has reached this season; the only other player with that stat is Elina Svitolina.

In yesterday's other quarterfinal match, Coco Gauff defeated countrywoman Jessica Pegula 4-6, 6-3, 6-3. "Considering I hadn't won a match on grass in two years before this tournament...I'm definitely just really happy with how I played today," the 7th seed said after the match. Pegula said that she established patterns in the match to which she probably should have adhered. She also acknowledged that her serve was off during the quarterfinal.

Today, Marta Kostyuk saw her 2026 season continue to rise in significance. After experiencing an excellent clay season, the Ukrainian player hit the grass in London with her typical fierceness and athleticism. Her straight sets defeat of 2024 finalist Jasmine Paolini places her in her second-ever major semifinal; her other semifinal was in Paris this season. 

In today's other quarterfinal match, Czech player Linda Noskova defeated Elise Mertens 6-3, 7-5. Veteran player Mertens, who has had an exceptional career in doubles, had never before advanced beyond the round of 16 at Wimbledon. The match was a close one, and it took Noskova almost two hours to win it. Her serve held up well throughout the match; however, she was able to convert only two of eleven break opportunities. 

Here is the semifinal draw:

Karolina Muchova (10) v. Coco Gauff (7)
Marta Kostyuk (12) v. Linda Noskova (9)

Muchova is 1-6 against Gauff; they have never played each other on grass. Kostyuk and Noskova have played each other only once, on clay. Kostyuk won that match.  

Eight women standing at Wimbledon

Marta Kostyuk gets past Ashlyn Krueger 6-4, 6-4 Wins the last 4 games from 2-4 40-30 down and makes her first Wimbledon Quarterfinal.

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— Tennis Updates (@tennisupdates.bsky.social) July 6, 2026 at 6:33 AM

Generally speaking, the round of 16 is my favorite part of a major. There are enough really good players left to make it exciting, but not too many. The first half of the Wimbledon round of 16, played yesterday, was high on drama in several different ways.

Jessica Pegula, playing on Centre Court for the first time in her career (how odd is that?) faced off against up-and-coming countrywoman Iva Jovic, and the first set looked like it belonged on a court in Paris, there were so many breaks of serve. Jovic won that set, but Pegula—calm and steady, as always—was able to take control of the match and win it, 4-6, 6-3, 6-1. 

And while it may not have been hailed as the “marquee match,” those in the know knew that the contest between countrywomen Karolina Muchova and 2024 champion Barbora Krejcikova was the match to watch. The pair didn’t disappoint. For two hours and 45 minutes, they delivered the kind of jaw-dropping shot-making for which they are known. Unfortunately, the Czech Curse—never far away—also made an appearance. 

For a long time, Muchova was one of the two most chronically injured players on the tour (the other was fellow Czech and 2024 champion Marketa Vondrousova). But then the Curse took hold of Krejcikova, bringing illness as well as injury. Krejcikova has slowly made her way back, and has looked really good in London. But during the third set of her round of 16 match, she had breathing problems (bringing back memories of another Czech Wimbledon champion) and her movement was hampered. She fought to the end, but she wasn’t able to overcome her opponent. Muchova won that truly beautiful match, 7-5, 5-7, 6-3.

Next to fall was world number 1 Aryna Sabalenka, who has been struggling somewhat this season. Sabalenka has won four majors—she has two Australian Open titles and two U.S. Open tiles. Her opponent was Naomi Osaka, who also holds two Australian Open titles and two U.S. Open titles. Osaka looked more at home on the grass than she ever has; she served really well, and she broke Sabalenka twice. Her 6-2, 7-6 (2) victory moves her into the Wimbledon quarterfinals for the first time in her career.

In yesterday’s final match, Coco Gauff defeated Belinda Bencic 4 -6, 6-3, 6-4, and she did it with just two minutes remaining before the cut-off time for play that day. This is also Gauff’s first time to appear in the quarterfinals.

In today’s round of 16 play, Marta Kostyuk reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals for the first time in her career when she defeated qualifier Ashlyn Krueger in straight sets. Kostyuk had an unusually good clay court season, and reached the quarterfinals of Roland-Garros. Also reaching the quarterfinals for the first time was veteran player Elise Mertens, who defeated Marie Bouzkova, also in straight sets.

2024 runner-up Jasmine Paolini, who has had a troublesome season and hasn’t played many matches, has found her game in London. Today, she defeated rising star Alex Eala 6-4, 4-6, 6-3. 

And in today’s final match, Linda Noskova defeated Madison Keys 6-4, 7-6 (2), and advanced to her first major quarterfinal. Noskova has been someone (a Czech someone, at that) to watch for a while, so this milestone is hardly a surprise. Last year, she made it to the round of 16, but lost to eventual finalist Amanda Anisimova. This year, Anisimova was defeated by Keys in the third round.

Here is the quarterfinal draw:

Naomi Osaka (14) v. Karolina Muchova (10)

Jessica Pegula (4) vs. Coco Gauff (7)

Marta Kostyuk (12) v. Jasmine Paolini (13) 
Linda Noskova (9) v. Elise Mertens (25)

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USA and Czech Republic dominate Wimbledon round of 16

ALEX EALA 🥹🥹🥹🥹🥹

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— The Tennis Letter (@thetennisletter.bsky.social) July 4, 2026 at 9:58 AM

The Wimbledon round of 16 is upon us, and one quarter of the draw is made up of Czech players--2024 champion Barbora Krejcikova, Karolina Muchova, Linda Noskova, and Marie Bouzkova. For now, the Czech Curse has been lifted (except, sadly, in the case of 2021 champion Marketa Vondrousova), and both Krejcikova and Muchova are healthy. Those two will also compete against each other in the round of 16, and that match has the potential to be a thing of beauty.

Krejcikova has been plagued with both injury and illness for a while, but she has finally gained some momemtum, and looks right at home on Wimbledon grass again. Surprisingly, she and Muchova have played each other only three times, and all of those matches were on clay. Krejcikova leads, 2-1, and it should be noted that they haven't played each other in eight years.

Linda Noskova's third round match against Sorana Cirstea turned into an edge-of-the-seat affair in the third set. Cirstea held a match point, but failed to convert it, then Noskova held two match points and didn't convert them. The set went to a tiebreak, which Noskova won 11-9. As for Bouzkova, she defeated Liudmila Samsonova 4-6, 7-6 (3), 6-4 in a match that lasted almost three and a half hours. 

The third round was big on drama. Noskova's just squeaking by Cirstea, and Bouzkova's hours-long extravaganza would have been enough--but there was more. 25th seed Elise Mertens upset 2nd seed and 2022 champion Elena Rybakina in straight sets. And then there was defending champion Iga Swiatek. Last year, just when a lot of people said that the five-time major champion was going downhill, she went to London and won Wimbledon. 

This year was different, though, because Swiatek's descent felt more profound. The serve and the forehand, her bread-and-butter shots, just weren't there the way they used to be, and Swiatek often looked visibly spooked on the court. In her first round match against Taylor Townsend, the atmosphere was very tense. Swiatek won only one game in the first set, and she committed nine double-faults in the match. And after the world number 3 won the match, she began to cry. These were most likely tears of relief mixed with something else, but I'm not sure what. 

Today, in the third round, Swiatek was up against rising star Alex Eala. And--as good as Eala is--Swiatek's serve and forehand "should" have helped her get past her opponent. It didn't happen that way. Eala won an 11-point tiebreak in the very long and tense first set, and--instead of wilting in the second set--she won it 6-2. All credit to Eala for holding her nerve and playing consistently well, but something is definitely wrong in the Swiatek camp.

There was better news for 2024 runner-up Jasmine Paolini, who has struggled quite a bit in the last several months. Today, the Italian player defeated Maria Sakkari in straight sets. And Marta Kostyuk, whose clay season was spectacular, has also made it to the second week of Wimbledon, as has Madison Keys, who defeated countrywoman and 2025 runner-up Amanda Anisimoa. 

25% is impressive, but players from the USA dominate even more in the round of 16. In addition to Keys, third round winners included Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff, Iva Jovic, and qualifier Ashlyn Krueger. Gauff's match was of special interest because her countrywoman (and 2017 junior Wimbledon champion), Claire Liu, took a set off of her in a tiebreak. 

Here is the round of 16 draw:

Aryna Sabalenka (1) v. Naomi Osaka (14)
Karolina Muchova (10) v. Barbora Krejcikova
Jessica Pegula (4) v. Iva Jovic (16)
Belinda Bencic (11) v. Coco Gauff (7)
Ashlyn Krueger (Q) v. Marta Kostyuk (12)
Jasmine Paolini (13) v. Alexandra Eala (29)
Madison Keys (26) v. Linda Noskova (9)
Marie Bouzkova (21) v. Elise Mertens (25)

The most likely player to win Wimbleon is ______

The projected quarter-finals for the ladies' singles draw 🌱 pic.twitter.com/kABZpXfVGQ

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) June 26, 2026

I don't know about everyone else, but I can't find a way to fill in that blank. Here are the women who--on paper--should be considered major contenders:

Defending champion Iga Swiatek: I never thought that we'd use the word "slump" (a word I dislike, anyway) to describe the former world number 1 and six-time major champion, but Swiatek appears to be in one. She has not won a title in 2026, which--for her--is a very significant fact. Swiatek has kept her pre-Wimbledon grass season short, opting to play only in Bad Hamburg, where she lost in the second round to Emma Navarro. 

Swiatek's possible (if things go as they "should," which they never do) draw is very tough, and pits her against the likes of rising star Alex Eala, former runner-up Jasmine Paolini (herself in something of a slump, but she should not be counted out), and 2023 champion Elena Rybakina. 

It's worth noting however, that the last time that the Polish star's career was widely thought to be going downhill was in June of 2025, and her response was to win her first Wimbledon title.

World number 1 Aryna Sabalenka: Sabalenka has never held the Wimbledon title. She excels on hard courts, but her game is such that can do well on grass, too. Sabalenka began her year by defending her Brisbane title, and then reaching the final of the Australian Open, in which she lost to Elena Rybakina. The world number 1 then went on to win the Sunshine Double. 

Following her victories in Indian Wells and Miami, Sabalenka, like Swiatek, chose to play in only one Wimbledon warmup tournament--the German Open, in which she reached the quarterfinals and was defeated by Jessica Pegula. That experience included a third set loss of 0-6. Sabalenka also lost her Roland-Garros quarterfinal third set 0-6  against Diana Shnaider, who handled the wind much better than her opponent did. Needless to say, Wimbledon's top seed has been feeling a bit shaky.

Former champion Elena Rybakina: Rybakina's career has been up and down for a while, though she gave it a decisive "up" when she won the Australian Open in January (defeating Sabalenka), then reached a career-high ranking of number 2 in the world. Rybakina won Stuttgart, and elected to play in two grass warmup tournaments--Queen's Club and the German Open, in which she reached the quarterfinals and the second round, respectively. 

The others: French Open champion Mirra Andreeva is, no doubt, going to feel the pressure of playing her home major even more now that she won a major. Her potential draw is very tough, and includes 2024 champion Barbora Krejcikova in the second round, and it doesn't get easier from there. She would likely face Karolina Muchova in the next round, and possibly Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula. 

And speaking of Krejcikova--if it weren't for the Czech Curse, she'd be on the above list of contenders. But chronic injury and illness have damaged her momentum. However, if she shows up healthy and confident, she could still be dangerous. Karolina Muchova is healthy, for a change, and she just won Bad Homburg, her first title on grass. A healthy Muchova with momentum can not only stun the crowds with her shot-making--she can do a lot of damage in her quarter of the draw.

2025 runner-up Amanda Anisimova needs to be in the mix, too. Anisimova was out for a couple of months this year with a wrist injury, but is healthy now; she made it to the quarterfinals at Queen's Club.

Elina Svitolina, who is playing the best tennis of her career, had to withdraw before her Bad Homburg quarterfinal because of a hip injury. If she's healthy, she should be considered a major threat in London, where she has reached the semifinals twice.

Also of interest is Linda Noskova, who has come into her own lately, winning the German Open and entering the top 10. The woman whom Noskova defeated in the Berlin final--Jessica Pegula--is in very good form right now. She may have lost the Berlin final, but all the parts of Pegula's game have come together in a way that now makes her a threat on any surface. 

And finally, it's never a good idea to count out Coco Gauff. She and Pegula will potentially meet in the quarterfinals. Pegula is 5-3 against Gauff, and both times that they have played on grass, Pegula has won. 

In Paris, the weather--which included intense heat, rain, wind, and hail--was a major factor. In London, we know that--at the very least--intense heat will affect play. 

And speaking of factors that can affect play--seven-time champion Serena Williams is back, and her potential draw is a very difficult one. In the first round, she plays Maya Joint, who hasn't been at her best lately, but is nevertheless a good player. If Williams gets past Joint, she'll probably have to play Alex Eala in the second round, and that would be a much bigger task. And should she emerge the winner of the match, other potential opponents include Swiatek, Paolini and Svitolina.

My Roland-Garros top ten

Believe it, Mirra 🧡#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/Taqb0R1Wz9

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 6, 2026

Here are my top ten Roland-Garros occurrences, in ascending order:

10: One to watch: Alisa Oktiabreva’s intention was to compete in the qualifying rounds in Paris, but she missed so much time last year because of a wrist injury that she entered the junior competition instead. That turned out well for the 12th-seeded Russian—she won the title. Oktiabreva defeated 2nd seed Sun Xinran 6-2, 6-1 in the final. In doubles, the winners were the unseeded Czech team of Jana Kovackova and Katerina Zajickova. They defeated 8th seeds Jordyn Hazelitt and Welles Nerman. 

9. This shouldn’t even be a topic: Of the four women who competed in the semifinals, two have female coaches. Both Marta Kotyuk and Mirra Andreeva are coached by women (as is quarterfinalist Anna Kalinskaya). The sad thing is that there are still so few female coaches, so we still point them out.

8. The Polish connection: Poland Garros has been a thing for a while; after all, Iga Swiatek has won the tournament four times. And those signs and t-shirts served a great purpose this year, even though Swiatek was defeated in the round of 16. Swiatek’s long-time friend, Maja Chwalinska, a qualifier, made it all the way to the final, providing Polish fans both a big surprise and a reason to cheer.

7. Where did they go?!: Jessica Pegula, former runner-up Jasmine Paolina, Australian Open champion and 2nd seed Elena Rybakina, 4th seed and defending champion Coco Guaff, four-time champion Iga Swiatek, as well as other notable players, were all defeated prior to the quarterfinals. In fact, only Swiatek made it to the round of 16. It was “one of those tournaments” in which the unexpected became the expected.

6. If you don’t like the weather, wait a while—it will get worse: This tournament had sweltering heat, high wind gusts, a lot of rain, and even a hail storm. The roof was open, the roof was closed. Wet conditions affect the clay, of course, but also the heaviness of the ball. But generally, the biggest challenge for players is the wind. Top seed Aryna Sabalenka struggled with it in her quarterfinal, in which she was defeated by Diana Shnaider, and Marta Kostyuk also had trouble with it.

5. Four and counting: Sara Errani, the last of the Four Fighting Italians, just keeps winning. She and partner Andrea Vavassori, the defending champions, won the title again. This makes four titles that they have won. Add that to the six women’s doubles titles and the Olympic gold medal in doubles that Errani has won, and you get a very impressive career.

4. She’s…..back!: Since her 2024 hip surgery and rehab break, former world number 1 Diede De Groot has been working her way back to the elite portion of the wheelchair tennis world. She made a great start in Paris, winning the singles title for the sixth time. De Groot defeated surprise French finalist Ksenia Chasteau 6-1, 6-0 in the final. De Groot and partner Aniek Van Koot made it to the semifinals in doubles, but lost to the top seeds. De Groot has now won 24 singles majors, and--with 43 combined major titles—she has broken the record (42) of her mentor, the great Esther Vergeer.

Queens in Paris 👑👑#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/QpScVMgUSU

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 7, 2026

3. They've done it again: Top seeds Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend won the doubles title, defeating 2nd seeds Anna Danilina and Aleksandra Krunic 6-2, 7-5 in the final. This is the first Roland-Garros title for the team, but the fourth for Siniakova. This is also the third major title for the team of Siniakova and Townsend, who are now one major (U.S. Open) shy of winning a Career Slam. Siniakova, who has now won eleven major doubles titles, already has a Career Slam with former partner Barbora Krejcikova.

2. Jazda!: So many fans, especially Polish fans, had their hopes set on four-time champion Iga Swiatek’s winning another Roland-Garros title. But while Swiatek went out in the round of 16, her long-time friend, Maja Chwalinska, put on what, in my opinion, was the best show of the tournament—and she almost won it. Chwalinska, as I pointed out earlier, plays the same kind of tennis that another great Polish player, Aga Radwanska, played. She spins, lobs and drops her opponents to the point of distraction, and she has the flexibility to retrieve balls from almost everywhere.

Chwalinska had a tough draw. First, she had to win three qualifying matches, then she proceeded to take out Olympic gold medal winner Zheng Qinwen, 23rd seed Elise Mertens, Maria Sakkari, Frenchwoman Diane Parry, 22nd seed Anna Kalinskaya, and 25th seed Diana Shnaider. By the time she reached the final, Chwallinska appeared tired—probably both physically and mentally, and she lost it in straight sets. 

But that doesn’t take away from her story. A few years ago, she took break because of depression. Upon her return, she continued to play ITF and WTA 125 events. In fact, she had played only a few main draw matches when she qualified in Paris. At that time, just two weeks ago, she was number 114 in the world; on Monday, she’ll be number 21. 

1. Thank yourself—it pays: Mirra Andreeva is the very definition of prodigy. When she was 15, she reached the round of 16 at Wimbledon, as a qualifier. Last year, at age 17, she won Indian Wells and Dubai—both 1000 events. Also in 2025, she reached the semifinals at Roland-Garros. It was clear that winning a major was on her agenda, and it was only a matter of which major—and when. Those questions were answered yesterday when Andreeva, at age 19, won the title in Paris. As I wrote yesterday, she had some help from an obviously tired opponent, but that takes nothing away from either her performance in the final, or performance throughout the tournament.

Strong on both the forehand and backhand sides, with a game that works on all surfaces, Andreeva’s only significant flaw has been her temper, which appeared to hurt her rather than fuel her. But under the guidance of coach Conchita Martinez, the teenage champion has learned to control her on-court emotions, and with one major title locked in, one can only imagine how her confidence has expanded.

At every trophy ceremony, Mirra Andreeva—after she has thanked her coach, her team, the tournament staff, and the fans—thanks herself “for believing in myself.” Speaking those words out loud is powerful—it helps to increase the belief. And so far, it’s working for Andreeva.