Saturday, June 27, 2026

The most likely player to win Wimbleon is ______

I don't know about everyone else, but I can't find a way to fill in that blank. Here are the women who--on paper--should be considered major contenders:

Defending champion Iga Swiatek: I never thought that we'd use the word "slump" (a word I dislike, anyway) to describe the former world number 1 and six-time major champion, but Swiatek appears to be in one. She has not won a title in 2026, which--for her--is a very significant fact. Swiatek has kept her pre-Wimbledon grass season short, opting to play only in Bad Hamburg, where she lost in the second round to Emma Navarro. 

Swiatek's possible (if things go as they "should," which they never do) draw is very tough, and pits her against the likes of rising star Alex Eala, former runner-up Jasmine Paolini (herself in something of a slump, but she should not be counted out), and 2023 champion Elena Rybakina. 

It's worth noting however, that the last time that the Polish star's career was widely thought to be going downhill was in June of 2025, and her response was to win her first Wimbledon title.

World number 1 Aryna Sabalenka: Sabalenka has never held the Wimbledon title. She excels on hard courts, but her game is such that can do well on grass, too. Sabalenka began her year by defending her Brisbane title, and then reaching the final of the Australian Open, in which she lost to Elena Rybakina. The world number 1 then went on to win the Sunshine Double. 

Following her victories in Indian Wells and Miami, Sabalenka, like Swiatek, chose to play in only one Wimbledon warmup tournament--the German Open, in which she reached the quarterfinals and was defeated by Jessica Pegula. That experience included a third set loss of 0-6. Sabalenka also lost her Roland-Garros quarterfinal third set 0-6  against Diana Shnaider, who handled the wind much better than her opponent did. Needless to say, Wimbledon's top seed has been feeling a bit shaky.

Former champion Elena Rybakina: Rybakina's career has been up and down for a while, though she gave it a decisive "up" when she won the Australian Open in January (defeating Sabalenka), then reached a career-high ranking of number 2 in the world. Rybakina won Stuttgart, and elected to play in two grass warmup tournaments--Queen's Club and the German Open, in which she reached the quarterfinals and the second round, respectively. 

The others: French Open champion Mirra Andreeva is, no doubt, going to feel the pressure of playing her home major even more now that she won a major. Her potential draw is very tough, and includes 2024 champion Barbora Krejcikova in the second round, and it doesn't get easier from there. She would likely face Karolina Muchova in the next round, and possibly Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula. 

And speaking of Krejcikova--if it weren't for the Czech Curse, she'd be on the above list of contenders. But chronic injury and illness have damaged her momentum. However, if she shows up healthy and confident, she could still be dangerous. Karolina Muchova is healthy, for a change, and she just won Bad Homburg, her first title on grass. A healthy Muchova with momentum can not only stun the crowds with her shot-making--she can do a lot of damage in her quarter of the draw.

2025 runner-up Amanda Anisimova needs to be in the mix, too. Anisimova was out for a couple of months this year with a wrist injury, but is healthy now; she made it to the quarterfinals at Queen's Club.

Elina Svitolina, who is playing the best tennis of her career, had to withdraw before her Bad Homburg quarterfinal because of a hip injury. If she's healthy, she should be considered a major threat in London, where she has reached the semifinals twice.

Also of interest is Linda Noskova, who has come into her own lately, winning the German Open and entering the top 10. The woman whom Noskova defeated in the Berlin final--Jessica Pegula--is in very good form right now. She may have lost the Berlin final, but all the parts of Pegula's game have come together in a way that now makes her a threat on any surface. 

And finally, it's never a good idea to count out Coco Gauff. She and Pegula will potentially meet in the quarterfinals. Pegula is 5-3 against Gauff, and both times that they have played on grass, Pegula has won. 

In Paris, the weather--which included intense heat, rain, wind, and hail--was a major factor. In London, we know that--at the very least--intense heat will affect play. 

And speaking of factors that can affect play--seven-time champion Serena Williams is back, and her potential draw is a very difficult one. In the first round, she plays Maya Joint, who hasn't been at her best lately, but is nevertheless a good player. If Williams gets past Joint, she'll probably have to play Alex Eala in the second round, and that would be a much bigger task. And should she emerge the winner of the match, other potential opponents include Swiatek, Paolini and Svitolina.

Posted by at No comments:

Sunday, June 7, 2026

My Roland-Garros top ten

Here are my top ten Roland-Garros occurrences, in ascending order:

10: One to watch: Alisa Oktiabreva’s intention was to compete in the qualifying rounds in Paris, but she missed so much time last year because of a wrist injury that she entered the junior competition instead. That turned out well for the 12th-seeded Russian—she won the title. Oktiabreva defeated 2nd seed Sun Xinran 6-2, 6-1 in the final. In doubles, the winners were the unseeded Czech team of Jana Kovackova and Katerina Zajickova. They defeated 8th seeds Jordyn Hazelitt and Welles Nerman. 

9. This shouldn’t even be a topic: Of the four women who competed in the semifinals, two have female coaches. Both Marta Kotyuk and Mirra Andreeva are coached by women (as is quarterfinalist Anna Kalinskaya). The sad thing is that there are still so few female coaches, so we still point them out.

8. The Polish connection: Poland Garros has been a thing for a while; after all, Iga Swiatek has won the tournament four times. And those signs and t-shirts served a great purpose this year, even though Swiatek was defeated in the round of 16. Swiatek’s long-time friend, Maja Chwalinska, a qualifier, made it all the way to the final, providing Polish fans both a big surprise and a reason to cheer.

7. Where did they go?!: Jessica Pegula, former runner-up Jasmine Paolina, Australian Open champion and 2nd seed Elena Rybakina, 4th seed and defending champion Coco Guaff, four-time champion Iga Swiatek, as well as other notable players, were all defeated prior to the quarterfinals. In fact, only Swiatek made it to the round of 16. It was “one of those tournaments” in which the unexpected became the expected.

6. If you don’t like the weather, wait a while—it will get worse: This tournament had sweltering heat, high wind gusts, a lot of rain, and even a hail storm. The roof was open, the roof was closed. Wet conditions affect the clay, of course, but also the heaviness of the ball. But generally, the biggest challenge for players is the wind. Top seed Aryna Sabalenka struggled with it in her quarterfinal, in which she was defeated by Diana Shnaider, and Marta Kostyuk also had trouble with it.

5. Four and counting: Sara Errani, the last of the Four Fighting Italians, just keeps winning. She and partner Andrea Vavassori, the defending champions, won the title again. This makes four titles that they have won. Add that to the six women’s doubles titles and the Olympic gold medal in doubles that Errani has won, and you get a very impressive career.

4. She’s…..back!: Since her 2024 hip surgery and rehab break, former world number 1 Diede De Groot has been working her way back to the elite portion of the wheelchair tennis world. She made a great start in Paris, winning the singles title for the sixth time. De Groot defeated surprise French finalist Ksenia Chasteau 6-1, 6-0 in the final. De Groot and partner Aniek Van Koot made it to the semifinals in doubles, but lost to the top seeds. De Groot has now won 24 singles majors, and--with 43 combined major titles—she has broken the record (42) of her mentor, the great Esther Vergeer.

3. They've done it again: Top seeds Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend won the doubles title, defeating 2nd seeds Anna Danilina and Aleksandra Krunic 6-2, 7-5 in the final. This is the first Roland-Garros title for the team, but the fourth for Siniakova. This is also the third major title for the team of Siniakova and Townsend, who are now one major (U.S. Open) shy of winning a Career Slam. Siniakova, who has now won eleven major doubles titles, already has a Career Slam with former partner Barbora Krejcikova.

2. Jazda!: So many fans, especially Polish fans, had their hopes set on four-time champion Iga Swiatek’s winning another Roland-Garros title. But while Swiatek went out in the round of 16, her long-time friend, Maja Chwalinska, put on what, in my opinion, was the best show of the tournament—and she almost won it. Chwalinska, as I pointed out earlier, plays the same kind of tennis that another great Polish player, Aga Radwanska, played. She spins, lobs and drops her opponents to the point of distraction, and she has the flexibility to retrieve balls from almost everywhere.

Chwalinska had a tough draw. First, she had to win three qualifying matches, then she proceeded to take out Olympic gold medal winner Zheng Qinwen, 23rd seed Elise Mertens, Maria Sakkari, Frenchwoman Diane Parry, 22nd seed Anna Kalinskaya, and 25th seed Diana Shnaider. By the time she reached the final, Chwallinska appeared tired—probably both physically and mentally, and she lost it in straight sets. 

But that doesn’t take away from her story. A few years ago, she took break because of depression. Upon her return, she continued to play ITF and WTA 125 events. In fact, she had played only a few main draw matches when she qualified in Paris. At that time, just two weeks ago, she was number 114 in the world; on Monday, she’ll be number 21. 

1. Thank yourself—it pays: Mirra Andreeva is the very definition of prodigy. When she was 15, she reached the round of 16 at Wimbledon, as a qualifier. Last year, at age 17, she won Indian Wells and Dubai—both 1000 events. Also in 2025, she reached the semifinals at Roland-Garros. It was clear that winning a major was on her agenda, and it was only a matter of which major—and when. Those questions were answered yesterday when Andreeva, at age 19, won the title in Paris. As I wrote yesterday, she had some help from an obviously tired opponent, but that takes nothing away from either her performance in the final, or performance throughout the tournament.

Strong on both the forehand and backhand sides, with a game that works on all surfaces, Andreeva’s only significant flaw has been her temper, which appeared to hurt her rather than fuel her. But under the guidance of coach Conchita Martinez, the teenage champion has learned to control her on-court emotions, and with one major title locked in, one can only imagine how her confidence has expanded.

At every trophy ceremony, Mirra Andreeva—after she has thanked her coach, her team, the tournament staff, and the fans—thanks herself “for believing in myself.” Speaking those words out loud is powerful—it helps to increase the belief. And so far, it’s working for Andreeva. 

Posted by at 2 comments:

Saturday, June 6, 2026

Mirra Andreeva holds the Coupe Suzanne-Lenglen in Paris

For 19-year-old Mirra Andreeva, it wasn't a matter of "if," but--rather--a matter of "when," and "when" kept getting closer and closer. Today, in Paris, it turned into reality, as the young Russian star won the 2026 Roland-Garros title, defeating surprise finalist Maja Chwalinska 6-3, 6-2 in the final. She had some help--qualifier Chwalinska, playing her tenth match of the tournament, had visibly "run out of steam" as she set foot on Court Philippe Chatrier. It's also possible that the occasion finally got to her, though nerves, mental fatigue, and physical fatigue can form a patchwork that makes it hard to distinguish one from another.

But not to take anything away from Andreeva, who was careful to end many points before Chwalinska could work the drop-spin-lob magic that had gotten her to the final. The wind was blowing, and the roof was open, which made things more difficult for both players. Andreeva led 5-0 in the second set, but then Chwalinska held, and then broke Andreeva when she held for the match. It looked like the match might take an interesting turn, but Andreeva broke Chwalinska right back, and finished with a crosscourt backhand winner. 

This was Andreeva's 36th match win of the season, which puts her ahead (in that category) of everyone else on the tour. It was also her 22nd clay court match win, also a leading stat. 

In the past, Andreeva, who is--after all--a teenager, was prone to having emotionally explosive moments on the court. But, under the guidance of coach Conchita Martinez, she has learned to control those, and to put that energy into thinking and hitting the ball. 

As for Chwalinska, her story remains remarkable. She was number 114 in the world and had played very few WTA main draw matches when she entered the qualifying part of the tournament. She defeated three seeded players, the Olympic gold medal winner, the last Frenchwoman standing, and former top 10 player Maria Sakkari. It was a tough draw, yet she prevailed through nine matches. On Monday, Chwalinska will be number 21 in the world.

There was another big winner today: Diede De Groot, whose injury layoff robbed her of her long-held number 1 in the world standing, won the wheelchair singles title. De Groot last won it in 2024, before she had to take time off from the tour. She and partner Aniek Van Koot lost the doubles final, but winning another singles major has to feel especially good for De Groot, who has now won 24 of them.

Posted by at No comments:

Thursday, June 4, 2026

The Prodigy versus The Magician--will it be Mirra or Maja who holds the Coupe Suzanne-Lenglen?

The "new" Marta Kostyuk---slayer of Iga Swiatek and all-around tennis badass--failed to make an appearance on Court Philippe Chatrier in Paris today. The wind was blowing in all directions, a factor which had hampered top seed Aryna Sabalenka in the quarterfinals, and which appeared to complicate matters for Kostyuk. Kostyuk's serve, which had been one of her biggest advantages throughout the tournament, was inconsistent, at best. And it seemed obvious--at least to me--that the phrase, "under stress, we regress," applied to the Ukrainian star today. She repeatedly set up winning shots, only to fail to keep the ball inside the court, and her opponent's steadiness only increased her frustration.

That opponent was 19-year-old Mirra Andreeva, who--like Kostyuk--is no stranger to having a problem with her nerves, but today, she was in charge throughout the match. The first set, in fact, was a beat-down, with Kostyuk winning only one game. Andreeva then went up a break in the second set, but Kostyuk managed to get the set back on serve when she broke Andreeva--only to be broken back right away. 

And that was also the end of Kostyuk's brief momentum. The roof was closed during the second set, which should have been a significant benefit for Kostyuk, but that benefit went only so far; Andreeva defeated her 6-1, 6-3. Only a few weeks ago, Kostyuk had defeated Andreeva in the Madrid final, and she had also defeated her earlier this year, in Brisbane. The Ukrainian star's 17-match win streak on clay was broken today, but that doesn't make it any less remarkable.

The second semifinal featured Diana Shnaider--who upset world number 1 Aryna Sabalenka in the quarterfinals--and qualifier Maja Chwalinska, playing her ninth match of the tournament. I expected this match to be entertaining, and I wasn't disappointed. And for those who were waiting for the Polish player to finally be stunned by the occasion--well, that didn't happen. Chwalinska, still with both thighs wrapped, went about her business as though she were playing any match--not one that would determine whether she'd be in a major final.

As for Shnaider--as time went on, she looked a bit tired, but she continued to play a high-quality match with a lot of precision. Both players were seen by the physio, and Chwalinska did her best to shorten the rallies in the second half of the second set. And--as well as Shnaider played--in the end, she was a victim of a kind of Polish trickery that we've seen before (though I've yet to hear a commentator even mention it): Iga Swiatek may be Chwalinska's good friend, but Aga Radwanka's game runs through her veins.

Chwalinska--frequently retrieving the ball from the far corners of the court--dropped, lobbed and sliced it relentlessly. The job may have been easier for her if she had a good down-the-line (on at least one side), but she did the job her own way--and won in straight sets--against a player who has quite a bit of variety in her own game. Chwalinksa hit 32 winners and made 17 unforced errors, and her 7-6 (4), 6-4 victory gives her a place in some rare history. She's now only the second qualifier to reach a major final (Emma Raducanu did it in 2021 at the U.S. Open, and went on to win the title), and she's only the third woman to reach her first WTA-level final at a major, joining Raducanu and Venus Williams.

As I wrote about yesterday, it was just a few days ago that Chwalinska was worried about how she would pay for her hotel room. Now her ranking is projected to rise by 93 points, as she is expected to be number 21 in the world next week.  

Paths to the final:

MAJA CHWALINSKA (Q)
round 1--def. Zheng Qinwen
round 2--def. Elise Mertens (23)
round 3--def. Maria Sakkari
round of 16--def. Diane Parry
quarterfinals--def. Anna Kalinskaya (22)
semifinals--def. Diana Shnaider (25)

MIRRA ANDREEVA (8)

round 1--def. Fiona Ferro (W)
round 2--def. Marina Bassols Ribera
round 3--def. Marie Bouzkova (27)
round of 16--def. Jil Teichmann
quarterfinals--def. Sorana Cirstea (18)
semifinals-- def. Marta Kostyuk (15)

 

In other news, top seeds and defending champions Sara Errani and Andrea Vavassori won the mixed doubles title when they defeated Gaby Dabrowski and Evan King 4-6, 6-3, 10-4 in the final. This is the team's fourth major title. 

In wheelchair tennis, top seed Yui Kamiji won her quarterfinal match, as did 4th seed and former world number 1 Diede De Groot. However, De Groot and her partner, Aniek Van Koot lost their doubles semifinal to top seeds Kamiji and Zhu Zhenzhen.

Posted by at No comments:

Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Roland Garros quarterfinals--a story with twists, turns and carnage

One by one, they dropped:
5th seed and Charleston champion Jessica Pegula in the first round
former champion Alona Ostapenko in the second round
13trh seed and former runner-up Jasmine Paolini in the second round
2nd seed Elena Rybakina in the second round
4th seed and defending champion Coco Gauff in the third round
6th seed Amanda Anisimova in the third round
10th seed and former runner-up Karolina Muchova in the third round
3rd seed and four-time champion Iga Swiatek in the round of 16


And that brings us to the quarterfinals--but don't expect the plot to twist back to "normal"--it doesn't. 
The match that contained the most drama--before it even began--was the one played between countrywomen Elina Svitolina and Marta Kostyuk. Both women have been on the same upward track, i.e., they have both significantly improved their games and put themselves in much better positions to win big matches (and Svitolina did it after giving birth to her daughter). And they have both had to bear the burden of dealing with the ongoing war in Ukraine, and all the political and rhetorical baggage that goes with that.

There was tension, but it was good tension. The match, unsurprisingly, went to three sets, and it was Swiatek-slayer Kostyuk who prevailed. In fact, in the third set, Kostyuk rose to a level that rendered her very worthy opponent close to helpless at times. The 15th seed, having won 17 straight matches on clay, is undefeated on the surface this season.

Mirra Andreeva ended the impressive run of Sorana Cirstea. This was Cirstea's final Roland-Garros match; she's retiring at the end of this season, which--so far--has proven to be an outstanding one for the 36-year-old Romanian. 


World number 1 and 2026 runner-up Aryna Sabalenka, seeking her first title in Paris, will have to wait another year. Diana Shnaider, the affable Russian in the headscarf, defeated Sabalenka 3-6, 7-5, 6-0 (and no, your eyes aren't deceiving you). Shnaider, in fact, was down a set and 1-4 when she dramatically turned the match around. Shnaider hit ten winners in the final set, and won 17 of the final 22 points of the match. She is now into her first major semifinal. 

And now it's time to circle back to Poland. Iga Swiatek may be gone, but she left a friend behind. Polish player Maja Chwalinska, who had to win three qualifying rounds to get into the main draw, advanced to the semifinals today when she upset 22nd seed Anna Kalinskaya 7-6, 6-3. 

Chwalinska, who is ranked number 114 in the world, had already knocked out Olympic gold medal winner Zheng Qinwen, 23rd seed Elise Mertens, Maria Sakkari, and last-Frenchwoman-standing Diane Parry. 

A woman who, a few days ago, wasn't sure how she would pay for the unexpected extended stay at her hotel, is now in the final four of a major, and is only the second qualifier in the Open Era to reach the Roland-Garros semifinals. The 24-year-old Chwalinska took a break from tennis a few years ago in order to deal with ongoing depression, and she returned to the tour with a different attitude about competition, winning and losing. 

Chwalinksa has competed mostly in ITF and WTA 125 events; prior to her Roland-Garros run, she had won only three main draw WTA matches. The story of this tournament is about a Polish woman, yes, but maybe it's not about Swiatek. (And Chwalinska's tennis sometimes brings to mind that of another great Polish player--also not Swiatek.) 

Here is the semifinal draw:
Diana Shnaider (25) v. Maja Chwalinka 
Marta Kostyuk (15) v. Mirra Andreeva (8)

Posted by at No comments:

Monday, June 1, 2026

Roland-Garros quarterfinal viewing may require more than popcorn

This year, the quarterfinals in Paris are especially intriguing. Two of the hottest players on the clay tour, countrywomen Elina Svitolina and Marta Kostyuk, will compete for a spot in the semifinals. Svitolina prevailed over Belinda Bencic in the round of 16 (and delivered a third set bagel), and Kostyuk--who has yet to lose a match on clay this season--has been the talk of the tournament because her round of 16 victim was four-time champion Iga Swiatek. 

I'm a long-time Kostyuk believer. I always thought that it was just a matter of time before the world number 15, who already had the necessary aggression in her game, would gain the mental control that she needed in order to increase the quality of her court strategy and stay calm in difficult moments. We're now seeing that Marta Kostyuk (coached by Sandra Zaniewska, who--not surprisingly--knew how to help her player reach more of her potential), and she's something to behold.

We're also seeing the "new" Svitolina, who is just as formidable. Long known for her movement, the Ukrainian star returned from her maternity leave with a much better serve and bigger hitting.  

As for Swiatek, she fell to Kostyuk rather easily, and--as many have pointed out--it wasn't that big a surprise. The Polish star and former number 1 in the world hasn't been herself lately, but--the last time the tennis world buzzed about Swiatek's not being herself, she won Wimbledon.

Another player who has been very much in form lately is Anastasia Potapova, who now plays for Austria.  However, Potapova was defeated in the round of 16 by former countrywoman Anna Kalinskaya. Kalinskaya, one of three Russians still in the draw, defeated Potapova 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 (7). The other Russians are 8th seed Mirra Andreeva, who defeated a resrugent Jil Teichmann in the round of 16, and Diana Shnaider, who defeated Madison Keys. 

And while Swiatek may be gone, Poland is nevertheless represented in the quarterfinals: Qualifier Maja Chwalinska knocked out Frenchwoman Diane Parry in the round of 16. 

World number 1 Aryna Sabalenka, who trying to earn her first Roland-Garros title, defeated Naomi Osaka in straight sets to advance to the quarterfinals, and Sorana Cirstea--doing the farewell tour of a lifetime--reached the quarterfinals by defeating Wang Xiyu.

Here is the quarterfinal draw:

Aryna Sabalenka (1) v. Diana Shnaider (25) 
Anna Kalinskaya (22) v. Maja Chwalinska (Q)
Elina Svitolina (7) v. Marta Kostyuk (15)
Mirra Andreeva (8) v. Sorana Cirstea (18)

Meanwhile, in doubles, top seeds Katerina Siniakova and Taylor  Townsend have advanced to the quarterfinals, as have number 2  seeds Anna Dalinina and Alexandra Krunic.

Posted by at No comments:

Saturday, May 30, 2026

Russians dominate Roland-Garros round of 16, and there are also some surprises

When we were sorting through Polish players likely to advance to the round of 16 at Roland-Garros, I doubt that many (or any) of us picked Maja Chwalinska, but the world number 114, a qualifier in Paris, has made it to the final sixteen. Not only that, she did it by taking out Olympic gold medal winner Zheng Qinwen, 23rd seed Elise Mertens, and Maria Sakkari. Prior to this week, Chwalinska had never made it past the second round of a major.

Of special interest is that Chwalinska's opponent in the round of 16 will be Frenchwoman Diane Parry; Parry upset 6th seed Amanda Anisimova in the third round.

Of course, Chwalinska will be joined by countrywoman Iga Swiatek, who has won Roland-Garros four times. Swiatek is seeded third at this tournament, and her round of 16 opponent will be Madrid champion Marta Kostyuk, who appears to have finally come into her own, and who should be a formidable opponent for the former world number 1. 

The big news today as that defending champion Coco Gauff fell to Anastasia Potapova, who defeated her 4-6, 7-6 (1), 6-4 in a long and thrilling match. Potapova no longer plays for Russia, but three Russians have made it to the last sixteen: Diana Shnaider, Anna Kalinskaya and Mirra Andreeva. 

Here is the round of 16 draw:

Aryna Sabalenka (1) v. Naomi Osaka (16)
Madison Keys (19) v. Diana Shnaider (25)
Anastasia Potapova (19) v. Anna Kalinskaya (22)
Maja Chwalinska v. Diane Parry
Elina Svitolina (7) v. Belinda Bencic (11)
Marta Kostyuk (15) v. Iga Swiatek (3)
Mirra Andreeva (8) v. Jil Teichmann
Sorana Cirstea (18) v. Wang Xiyu

In addition to Madrid champion Kostyuk, there are two other pre-Roland-Garros clay court winners: Svitolina won Rome, and Andreeva won Linz. Madrid and Rome are WTA 1000 events, Linz is a WTA 500 event. And Cirstea, of course, having announced her retirement, is on a roll that could take her anywhere. 

Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)