My Wimbledon top 10

Linda Noskova with her 2026 Wimbledon trophy. That Grand Slam Champion glow. 🏆✨

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— The Tennis Letter (@thetennisletter.bsky.social) July 11, 2026 at 1:14 PM

Here are my top 10 Wimbledon occurrences, in ascending order:

10. Gone too soon: Three former Wimbledon champions played in the tournament, and all three wee potential second-time champions. Sadly, all three had challenges that have set them back. In 2022 champion Elena Rybakina's case, the challenge was chronic illness, which has damaged her momentum on the tour. Rybakina, seeded 2nd, didn't make it past the third round, in which she lost in straight sets to veteran player Elise Mertens. There's no shame in losing to Mertens, but it was unfortunate to see Rybakina make such an early exit.

9. In for the long haul: Anna Pushkareva won the junior girls title, defeating Sun Xinran 5-7, 6-3, 6-4 in the final. The two-hour and 23-minute match was the longest junior girls final in Wimbledon history. 

8. Who are you, and what have you done with Iga Swiatek?: Last year around this time, tennis fans and media were talking about what a slump Iga Swiatek was in. Well, she showed everybody by arriving in London and winning her first Wimbledon title. But, as I mentioned earlier, all three former champions came into this tournament with challenges, and Swiatek's challenge was that she was, once again, in what some might call a slump. There is no denying that the former world number 1 and six-time major champion simply hasn't been herself for a while, but who was this in London?

In the first round, Swiatek faced Taylor Townsend, a formidable opponent. They went three sets, and Swiatek won, but after the match, she was in tears, presumably from relief, but one has to wonder what's going on, what with the coaching changes and the obvious lack of confidence. The Polish star won her second round match against Karolina Pliskova, but went out in straight sets in the third round against rising star Alex Eala. Eala also defeated Swiatek last year in Miami, and is now 2-1 against her. 

The best players on the tour are going to learn how to beat a champion, yes. And young, talented players, perhaps, are going to go all out to try to do so; there's nothing shameful about losing to Alex Eala. But that was just one piece in a puzzle that has become more mysterious as the season has progressed.

7. Just when I thought nothing else could surprise me: Six-time Wimbledon champion and former world number 1 Diede De Groot, who has steadily been making a comeback since she had hip surgery, made it to the final, but lost to top seed Yui Kamiji. There's nothing shocking about that--Kamiji has been the queen of wheelchair tennis since De Groot had to leave the tour for a while. The surprise was the scoreline--6-0, 6-0. De Groot, who double-faulted repeatedly, had seemed fine throughout the tournament, but she did experience a recent retirement from another tournament, so one has to wonder whether there was some sort of relapse.

Top seeds Kamiji and Zhu Zhenzhen won the doubles title, defeating 2nd seeds Li Xiaohui and Wang Ziying 6-4, 7-5 in the final. This is Kamiji's ninth Wimbledon doubles title. She also won the singles title, and--in doing so--achieved the career Golden Slam; she is the first Japanese women to do so.

6. Coming into her own: Marta Kostyuk has played impressive tennis for a long time, but—like many other good players—her head kept getting in her way. She worked on that problem, and also made her game more aggressive, then went on a 16-match clay court win tear, which included her winning Madris, and culminated with her reaching the Roland-Garros semifinals. Kostyuk showed up in London with the same fire, and again, advanced to the semifinals. She was stopped by eventual champion Linda Noskova, but it was quite a run. It will be interesting to see what the Ukrainian star does during hard court season.

5.Try again: Alona Ostapenko, who has become a considerable force in doubles play, was part of the runner-up mixed doubles team at Wimbledon in 2019. This year, she and Marcelo Arevalo, seeded 2nd, won the title, defeating Storm Hunter and Marc Polmans in the final. 

4.  Czech-palooza!: Czech players dominated this Wimbledon tournament. Four players--Barbora Krejcikova, Linda Noskova, Karolina Muchova, and Marie Bouzkova--all advanced to the round of 16. Krejcikova, the third of the former Wimbledon champions (her challenge has been both injury and illness), made it past Roland-Garros champion Mirra Andreeva, and played a very spirited and entertaining match against Muchova, which she lost. Both Muchova and Noskova advanced to the quarterfinals, and then advanced all the way to the final. 

In the meantime, a pair of Czech teens, Jana Kovackova and Katerina Zajickova, seeded 5th, won the junior girls doubles title in a very close final. Kovackova and Zajickova also won the Roland-Garros title. And as if that weren't enough, Lucie Safarova (playing with Magda Rybarikova) won the Invitational Doubles event.

3. Coco and Karo--together again, as you always wanted to see them!:  Karolina Muchova had played Coco Gauff seven times, and had won only one of those matches. But the way the Czech star was playing in London, it was reasonable to think that we were in for some first-rate tennis when they met in the semifinals. It turns out that we had no idea what we were in for. Muchova dominated the first set, then Gauff dominated the second set, and there was a very well-played third set, which went to a tiebreak. 

No one who saw that tiebreak will forget it any time soon. Muchova, dealing with some sort of abdominal strain on her right side, nevertheless put the Muchova Show into high gear, whipping a winning volley from her shoelaces, and hitting a dive volley winner, which left her body-down on the court while her racket flew out of her hands. Gauff's moves were less dramatic, but just as deadly--Muchova had to save a match point. And after almost two and a half hours, Muchova won the match, 6-2, 1-6, 7-6 (10).

2. Never count her out: There was a time when--if you wanted to win a doubles match (or a tournament), all you had to do was get Kiki Mladenovic to be your partner. (One year, in Charleston, Lucie Safarova arrived without her doubles partner. Mladenovic arrived the same way, so--at the last minute--they decided to be partners. They had no time to practice--at all. I asked Safarova what she thought her chances would be in doubles, and she just gave me a side-eye. She and Mladenovic went on to win the tournament.)

Mladenovic (playing with regular partners Timea Babos and Caroline Garcia) has won the Australian Open twice, and Roland-Garros four times. She was a finalist three times at the U.S. Open, and--twelve years ago--she and Babos were finalists at Wimbledon. And now, 33-year-old Mladenovic has finally added a Wimbledon title to her impressive doubles resume. She and partner Guo Hanyu, seeded 10th, upset top seeds Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend in the quarterfinals. They then went on to upset 2nd seeds Gaby Dabrowski and Luisa Stefanie 6-3, 7-5 in the final.

1. Czechs are always in fashion: For the first time in Wimbledon history, two Czech players contested the women's final--the artistic, yet hard-hitting Karolina Muchova, and the also hard-hitting, potential star-in-the-making Linda Noskova. Brilliant Czechs retire from the tour, but they are always succeeded by young, potentially brilliant countrywomen. It's a Czech thing. Noskova has stood out for a while, and shortly before she arrived in London, she demonstrated her grass skills by winning Berlin. 

In the final, Noskova took the first set 6-3, then--at 5-3, she served for the match. And then Muchova made a comeback so impressive, it was even more dramatic than her semifinal third set tiebreak antics. She saved five match points, and the match went to a third set, but--by then--Noskova had regained her mojo, and she emerged the 2026 Wimbledon champion, defeating her opponent 6-3, 5-7, 6-3.

After the match, Muchova acknowledged that the semifinal match had taken something out of her physically, and also--that she had experienced an issue with her nerves because she wanted so badly to win. This acknowledgment brings to mind her loss in the 2023 Roland-Garros final, in which she was up a break in the third set before losing to Iga Swiatek. 

And of course, there was the matter of Muchova's opponent, who--though she wobbled in the second set--was able to get her head together and find a way to win. 21-year-old Noskova's mother died of cancer two years ago, right before Noskova played at the 2024 Wimbledon tournament, and--in her trophy acceptance speech--Noskova thanked her. "I definitely would not be standing here without her, so thank you."

Tomorrow, Noskova will be number 7 in the world, and that world will now see her as a Wimbledon champion. 

Meet the new (Wimbledon) boss--she's Czech, of course

Linda Noskova is a Grand Slam Champion, she wins 6-2, 5-7, 6-3 vs fellow Czech Karolina Muchova. Had 5 championship points in the 2nd set and regroups to perfection. • Youngest Wimbledon Champion since Kvitova (2011) • Likely Secures 1st WTA Finals Appearance (Top 20 Rule) • Career High #7

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— Tennis Updates (@tennisupdates.bsky.social) July 11, 2026 at 12:38 PM

Several years ago, after coming within a half inch of going out in a big match, two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova turned the whole thing around and won it. After the match, she addressed her fans on social media by saying something to the effect of "Thanks for all the support--and sorry for the blood pressure!" Karolina Muchova could have issued a similar apology to her fans after the second set of the championship match, which was maybe even more dramatic than her third set tiebreak against Coco Gauff in the semifinals.

After Linda Noskova took total control of the first set, preventing Muchova from reaching into her considerable bag of tricks, she then proceeded to take control of the second set, too. Then, serving at 6-2, 5-3, something happened. Well, two things happened--Noskova got tight, and Muchova found her inner Houdini. She saved four championship points, and on her seventh break point, she converted for 4-5. 

At 4-5, Noskova held her fifth championship point, but could not convert it. Several deuces later, Muchova held for 5-all. 

What made this already tense situation even more dramatic was that Noskova could not only not find her serve, she double-faulted twice. Yet almost every time her opponent had a break point, Noskova would hit an ace. This happened over and over, in almost cartoon-like fashion. The role reversal continued, as Muchova broke again and held to take the set 7-5. She had performed a tennis miracle, but could she keep it up?

She could not. When the third set began, Noskova entered the court as her first-set self, and went up 3-0. Muchova was able to get back in, breaking Noskova and providing at least some indication that she could turn the third set into another thrill ride. But it wasn't to be; Noskova won the two and a half-hour match 6-2, 5-7, 6-3. The key takeaway wasn't that she became shaky in the second set (Muchova is good at making opponents shaky, as is serving for your first major title), but that she was able to put it past her and complete her mission. She was impressive throughout most of the match, and she demonstrated what happens when a champion's game syncs with a champion's mindset.

Both players struggled with their serves. They both had excellent second serve stats throughout the tournamnent, but neither could excel with the second serve in the final. Both finished with positive winners-to-unforced error ratios--Muchova's was 35/27; Noskova's was 44/36. 

It should be noted that this was the first time in 36 years that both finalists had won grass warm-up tournaments. Muchova won Bad Homburg, and Noskova won Berlin. Both finalists saved match points on their way to the final--Muchova against Coco Gauff in the semifinals, and Noskova against Sorana Cirstea in the third round. Perhaps an even more interesting fact is that this was the first time that two Czech players had ever competed in the Wimbledon final. 

Noskova has now won three WTA titles. She will enter the top 10 on Monday, as number 7 in the world.

Linda Noskova holds the Venus Rosewater Dish over the balcony after winning the Wimbledon title. Beaming. 🥰🏆

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— The Tennis Letter (@thetennisletter.bsky.social) July 11, 2026 at 1:33 PM

Forget the Emmys--Gauff and Muchova gave us all the TV drama we could handle

KAROLINA MUCHOVA WON THIS POINT

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— The Tennis Letter (@thetennisletter.bsky.social) July 9, 2026 at 10:03 AM

We knew that it was going to be good. We knew that it would include every shot known (we get that from Muchova alone). But maybe we didn't know just how crazy dramatic the Wimbledon semifinal--and, to be specific, the third set tiebreak--played by Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova, would be. Muchova, already known for her artistry on the court (but also known for her hard hitting and excellent serve), put on one of her best shows, which included hitting a winner from a complete dive. But she also experienced transient abdominal pain on her right side, and--toward the end--she slipped and fell while reaching for a volley.

As for Gauff, she repeatedly flummoxed her opponent, just when Muchova gained momentum. In other words, she was Coco Gauff. The scoreline pretty much defines the match: 6-2, 1-6, 7-6 (10). Muchova dominated, then Gauff dominated, and then they went after each other as though, well--as though a spot in the Wimbledon championship match depended on it. 

Muchova, who saved a match point, won the two hour and thirty-five minute match, and--while I don't like to say it--the Czech star's abdominal pain doesn't register the way it might if another player experienced it. Muchova's career stats, in my opinion (and I'm not alone), should have some majors listed. But years of chronic injury (the Czech Curse) have kept her from achieving so many things. Let's hope that, this time, this is just a routine stitch that will heal with rest and treatment.

Prior to today, Muchova was 1-6 against Gauff. This is her second major final. In 2023, she reached the final of Roland-Garros, in which she was defeated by Iga Swiatek.

The second semifinal featured another Czech player, Linda Noskova, and Ukrainian star Marta Kostyuk. And, while Kostyuk's performance throughout the tournament has been outstanding, there were too many times today when "the old Kustyuk" made an appearance on the court. She was up against an opponent who was both powerful and deadly accurate, and she struggled to figure out how to handle her. That struggle appeared to take away some of Kostyuk's confidence, and--though she had some brilliant moments--she was unable to solve the problem that was Noskova, who kept her under constant pressure.

Muchova and Noskova have played each other only once, at last year's U.S. Open, and Muchova won that match.

Paths to the final:

KAROLINA MUCHVOVA (10) 
round 1--d. Anastasia Zakharova
round 2--d. Zhang Shuai
round 3--d. Mananchaya Sawangkaew (Q)
round of 16--d. Barbora Krejcikova
quarterfinals--d. Naomi Osaka (14)
semifinals--d. Coco Gauff (7) 

LINDA NOSKOVA (9)
round 1--d. Ella Seidel
round 2--d. Camila Osorio 
round 3--d. Sorana Cirstea (17)
round of 16--d. Madison Keys (26)
quarterfinals--d. Elise Mertens (25)
semifinals--d. Marta Kostyuk (12)

Gauff and Muchova weren't the only ones locked in to a tight third set tiebreak. Six-time Wimbledon champion Diede De Groot was pushed hard by her doubles partner, Aniek Van Koot, in the quarterfinals of the women's wheelchair singles competition. De Groot, seeded 2nd, defeated Van Koot 6-4, 7-6 (12). She will face 3rd seed Li Xiaohui.

In doubles, Guo Hanyu and Kiki Mladenovic, seeded 10th, will play Jiang Xinyu in the semifinals. In the other semifinal match, 13th seeds Shuko Aoyama and Liang En-Shuo will compete against 2nd seeds Gaby Dabrowski and Luisa Stafani. Guo and Mladenovic upset top seeds Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend in the quarterfinals. (Back in the day, I used to say that Anybody and Mladenovic was a winning team. It's interesting that here she is, taking out Siniakova in a major.

Arevalo/Ostapenko take the Mixed Doubles Title after a 4-6, 7-5, 6-2 win over Polmans/Hunter First Wimbledon title for both.

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— Tennis Updates (@tennisupdates.bsky.social) July 9, 2026 at 2:50 PM

Finally, we have winners! Alona Ostapenko and Marcelo Arevalo, seeded 2nd, won the mixed doubles title today when they defeated Storm Hunter and Marc Polmans 3-6, 7-5, 6-2 in the final. This is Ostapenko's first mixed doubles title. She and Lyudmyla Kichenok won the U.S. Open women's doubles title in 2024. 

Fact Czech: They're still dominating the Wimbledon draw

Having exited Wimbledon in the first round in each of her previous four visits, Karolina Muchova is into the semifinals following a 7-6, 6-4 victory over Naomi Osaka. She will meet Coco Gauff for a place in Saturday's final.

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— The Athletic (@theathletic.com) July 7, 2026 at 12:37 PM

There are only four women left standing at Wimbledon, and two of them are Czech players. This shouldn't come as a surprise; Czechs excel on the grass. Martina Navratilova (who won the tournament twice before she changed her citizenship), Jana Novotna, Petra Kvitova, Marketa Vondruosova, and Barbora Krejcikova all won in London (Kvitova won twice). And now, there's a chance for another Czech player to lift the Venus Rosewater dish.

Yesterday, Karolina Muchova--who should have had a brilliant career by now, but the Czech Curse (chronic injury) has repeatedly taken her off of the tour and quashed her momentum) defeated Naomi Osaka in straight sets (7-6, 6-4). Muchova is known for her breathtaking artistry on the court--so much so that she sometimes doesn't get credit for her hard hitting and excellent serve. The Wimbledon semifinal is the sixth one that the Czech star has reached this season; the only other player with that stat is Elina Svitolina.

In yesterday's other quarterfinal match, Coco Gauff defeated countrywoman Jessica Pegula 4-6, 6-3, 6-3. "Considering I hadn't won a match on grass in two years before this tournament...I'm definitely just really happy with how I played today," the 7th seed said after the match. Pegula said that she established patterns in the match to which she probably should have adhered. She also acknowledged that her serve was off during the quarterfinal.

Today, Marta Kostyuk saw her 2026 season continue to rise in significance. After experiencing an excellent clay season, the Ukrainian player hit the grass in London with her typical fierceness and athleticism. Her straight sets defeat of 2024 finalist Jasmine Paolini places her in her second-ever major semifinal; her other semifinal was in Paris this season. 

In today's other quarterfinal match, Czech player Linda Noskova defeated Elise Mertens 6-3, 7-5. Veteran player Mertens, who has had an exceptional career in doubles, had never before advanced beyond the round of 16 at Wimbledon. The match was a close one, and it took Noskova almost two hours to win it. Her serve held up well throughout the match; however, she was able to convert only two of eleven break opportunities. 

Here is the semifinal draw:

Karolina Muchova (10) v. Coco Gauff (7)
Marta Kostyuk (12) v. Linda Noskova (9)

Muchova is 1-6 against Gauff; they have never played each other on grass. Kostyuk and Noskova have played each other only once, on clay. Kostyuk won that match.  

Eight women standing at Wimbledon

Marta Kostyuk gets past Ashlyn Krueger 6-4, 6-4 Wins the last 4 games from 2-4 40-30 down and makes her first Wimbledon Quarterfinal.

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— Tennis Updates (@tennisupdates.bsky.social) July 6, 2026 at 6:33 AM

Generally speaking, the round of 16 is my favorite part of a major. There are enough really good players left to make it exciting, but not too many. The first half of the Wimbledon round of 16, played yesterday, was high on drama in several different ways.

Jessica Pegula, playing on Centre Court for the first time in her career (how odd is that?) faced off against up-and-coming countrywoman Iva Jovic, and the first set looked like it belonged on a court in Paris, there were so many breaks of serve. Jovic won that set, but Pegula—calm and steady, as always—was able to take control of the match and win it, 4-6, 6-3, 6-1. 

And while it may not have been hailed as the “marquee match,” those in the know knew that the contest between countrywomen Karolina Muchova and 2024 champion Barbora Krejcikova was the match to watch. The pair didn’t disappoint. For two hours and 45 minutes, they delivered the kind of jaw-dropping shot-making for which they are known. Unfortunately, the Czech Curse—never far away—also made an appearance. 

For a long time, Muchova was one of the two most chronically injured players on the tour (the other was fellow Czech and 2024 champion Marketa Vondrousova). But then the Curse took hold of Krejcikova, bringing illness as well as injury. Krejcikova has slowly made her way back, and has looked really good in London. But during the third set of her round of 16 match, she had breathing problems (bringing back memories of another Czech Wimbledon champion) and her movement was hampered. She fought to the end, but she wasn’t able to overcome her opponent. Muchova won that truly beautiful match, 7-5, 5-7, 6-3.

Next to fall was world number 1 Aryna Sabalenka, who has been struggling somewhat this season. Sabalenka has won four majors—she has two Australian Open titles and two U.S. Open tiles. Her opponent was Naomi Osaka, who also holds two Australian Open titles and two U.S. Open titles. Osaka looked more at home on the grass than she ever has; she served really well, and she broke Sabalenka twice. Her 6-2, 7-6 (2) victory moves her into the Wimbledon quarterfinals for the first time in her career.

In yesterday’s final match, Coco Gauff defeated Belinda Bencic 4 -6, 6-3, 6-4, and she did it with just two minutes remaining before the cut-off time for play that day. This is also Gauff’s first time to appear in the quarterfinals.

In today’s round of 16 play, Marta Kostyuk reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals for the first time in her career when she defeated qualifier Ashlyn Krueger in straight sets. Kostyuk had an unusually good clay court season, and reached the quarterfinals of Roland-Garros. Also reaching the quarterfinals for the first time was veteran player Elise Mertens, who defeated Marie Bouzkova, also in straight sets.

2024 runner-up Jasmine Paolini, who has had a troublesome season and hasn’t played many matches, has found her game in London. Today, she defeated rising star Alex Eala 6-4, 4-6, 6-3. 

And in today’s final match, Linda Noskova defeated Madison Keys 6-4, 7-6 (2), and advanced to her first major quarterfinal. Noskova has been someone (a Czech someone, at that) to watch for a while, so this milestone is hardly a surprise. Last year, she made it to the round of 16, but lost to eventual finalist Amanda Anisimova. This year, Anisimova was defeated by Keys in the third round.

Here is the quarterfinal draw:

Naomi Osaka (14) v. Karolina Muchova (10)

Jessica Pegula (4) vs. Coco Gauff (7)

Marta Kostyuk (12) v. Jasmine Paolini (13) 
Linda Noskova (9) v. Elise Mertens (25)

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USA and Czech Republic dominate Wimbledon round of 16

ALEX EALA 🥹🥹🥹🥹🥹

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— The Tennis Letter (@thetennisletter.bsky.social) July 4, 2026 at 9:58 AM

The Wimbledon round of 16 is upon us, and one quarter of the draw is made up of Czech players--2024 champion Barbora Krejcikova, Karolina Muchova, Linda Noskova, and Marie Bouzkova. For now, the Czech Curse has been lifted (except, sadly, in the case of 2021 champion Marketa Vondrousova), and both Krejcikova and Muchova are healthy. Those two will also compete against each other in the round of 16, and that match has the potential to be a thing of beauty.

Krejcikova has been plagued with both injury and illness for a while, but she has finally gained some momemtum, and looks right at home on Wimbledon grass again. Surprisingly, she and Muchova have played each other only three times, and all of those matches were on clay. Krejcikova leads, 2-1, and it should be noted that they haven't played each other in eight years.

Linda Noskova's third round match against Sorana Cirstea turned into an edge-of-the-seat affair in the third set. Cirstea held a match point, but failed to convert it, then Noskova held two match points and didn't convert them. The set went to a tiebreak, which Noskova won 11-9. As for Bouzkova, she defeated Liudmila Samsonova 4-6, 7-6 (3), 6-4 in a match that lasted almost three and a half hours. 

The third round was big on drama. Noskova's just squeaking by Cirstea, and Bouzkova's hours-long extravaganza would have been enough--but there was more. 25th seed Elise Mertens upset 2nd seed and 2022 champion Elena Rybakina in straight sets. And then there was defending champion Iga Swiatek. Last year, just when a lot of people said that the five-time major champion was going downhill, she went to London and won Wimbledon. 

This year was different, though, because Swiatek's descent felt more profound. The serve and the forehand, her bread-and-butter shots, just weren't there the way they used to be, and Swiatek often looked visibly spooked on the court. In her first round match against Taylor Townsend, the atmosphere was very tense. Swiatek won only one game in the first set, and she committed nine double-faults in the match. And after the world number 3 won the match, she began to cry. These were most likely tears of relief mixed with something else, but I'm not sure what. 

Today, in the third round, Swiatek was up against rising star Alex Eala. And--as good as Eala is--Swiatek's serve and forehand "should" have helped her get past her opponent. It didn't happen that way. Eala won an 11-point tiebreak in the very long and tense first set, and--instead of wilting in the second set--she won it 6-2. All credit to Eala for holding her nerve and playing consistently well, but something is definitely wrong in the Swiatek camp.

There was better news for 2024 runner-up Jasmine Paolini, who has struggled quite a bit in the last several months. Today, the Italian player defeated Maria Sakkari in straight sets. And Marta Kostyuk, whose clay season was spectacular, has also made it to the second week of Wimbledon, as has Madison Keys, who defeated countrywoman and 2025 runner-up Amanda Anisimoa. 

25% is impressive, but players from the USA dominate even more in the round of 16. In addition to Keys, third round winners included Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff, Iva Jovic, and qualifier Ashlyn Krueger. Gauff's match was of special interest because her countrywoman (and 2017 junior Wimbledon champion), Claire Liu, took a set off of her in a tiebreak. 

Here is the round of 16 draw:

Aryna Sabalenka (1) v. Naomi Osaka (14)
Karolina Muchova (10) v. Barbora Krejcikova
Jessica Pegula (4) v. Iva Jovic (16)
Belinda Bencic (11) v. Coco Gauff (7)
Ashlyn Krueger (Q) v. Marta Kostyuk (12)
Jasmine Paolini (13) v. Alexandra Eala (29)
Madison Keys (26) v. Linda Noskova (9)
Marie Bouzkova (21) v. Elise Mertens (25)

The most likely player to win Wimbleon is ______

The projected quarter-finals for the ladies' singles draw 🌱 pic.twitter.com/kABZpXfVGQ

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) June 26, 2026

I don't know about everyone else, but I can't find a way to fill in that blank. Here are the women who--on paper--should be considered major contenders:

Defending champion Iga Swiatek: I never thought that we'd use the word "slump" (a word I dislike, anyway) to describe the former world number 1 and six-time major champion, but Swiatek appears to be in one. She has not won a title in 2026, which--for her--is a very significant fact. Swiatek has kept her pre-Wimbledon grass season short, opting to play only in Bad Hamburg, where she lost in the second round to Emma Navarro. 

Swiatek's possible (if things go as they "should," which they never do) draw is very tough, and pits her against the likes of rising star Alex Eala, former runner-up Jasmine Paolini (herself in something of a slump, but she should not be counted out), and 2023 champion Elena Rybakina. 

It's worth noting however, that the last time that the Polish star's career was widely thought to be going downhill was in June of 2025, and her response was to win her first Wimbledon title.

World number 1 Aryna Sabalenka: Sabalenka has never held the Wimbledon title. She excels on hard courts, but her game is such that can do well on grass, too. Sabalenka began her year by defending her Brisbane title, and then reaching the final of the Australian Open, in which she lost to Elena Rybakina. The world number 1 then went on to win the Sunshine Double. 

Following her victories in Indian Wells and Miami, Sabalenka, like Swiatek, chose to play in only one Wimbledon warmup tournament--the German Open, in which she reached the quarterfinals and was defeated by Jessica Pegula. That experience included a third set loss of 0-6. Sabalenka also lost her Roland-Garros quarterfinal third set 0-6  against Diana Shnaider, who handled the wind much better than her opponent did. Needless to say, Wimbledon's top seed has been feeling a bit shaky.

Former champion Elena Rybakina: Rybakina's career has been up and down for a while, though she gave it a decisive "up" when she won the Australian Open in January (defeating Sabalenka), then reached a career-high ranking of number 2 in the world. Rybakina won Stuttgart, and elected to play in two grass warmup tournaments--Queen's Club and the German Open, in which she reached the quarterfinals and the second round, respectively. 

The others: French Open champion Mirra Andreeva is, no doubt, going to feel the pressure of playing her home major even more now that she won a major. Her potential draw is very tough, and includes 2024 champion Barbora Krejcikova in the second round, and it doesn't get easier from there. She would likely face Karolina Muchova in the next round, and possibly Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula. 

And speaking of Krejcikova--if it weren't for the Czech Curse, she'd be on the above list of contenders. But chronic injury and illness have damaged her momentum. However, if she shows up healthy and confident, she could still be dangerous. Karolina Muchova is healthy, for a change, and she just won Bad Homburg, her first title on grass. A healthy Muchova with momentum can not only stun the crowds with her shot-making--she can do a lot of damage in her quarter of the draw.

2025 runner-up Amanda Anisimova needs to be in the mix, too. Anisimova was out for a couple of months this year with a wrist injury, but is healthy now; she made it to the quarterfinals at Queen's Club.

Elina Svitolina, who is playing the best tennis of her career, had to withdraw before her Bad Homburg quarterfinal because of a hip injury. If she's healthy, she should be considered a major threat in London, where she has reached the semifinals twice.

Also of interest is Linda Noskova, who has come into her own lately, winning the German Open and entering the top 10. The woman whom Noskova defeated in the Berlin final--Jessica Pegula--is in very good form right now. She may have lost the Berlin final, but all the parts of Pegula's game have come together in a way that now makes her a threat on any surface. 

And finally, it's never a good idea to count out Coco Gauff. She and Pegula will potentially meet in the quarterfinals. Pegula is 5-3 against Gauff, and both times that they have played on grass, Pegula has won. 

In Paris, the weather--which included intense heat, rain, wind, and hail--was a major factor. In London, we know that--at the very least--intense heat will affect play. 

And speaking of factors that can affect play--seven-time champion Serena Williams is back, and her potential draw is a very difficult one. In the first round, she plays Maya Joint, who hasn't been at her best lately, but is nevertheless a good player. If Williams gets past Joint, she'll probably have to play Alex Eala in the second round, and that would be a much bigger task. And should she emerge the winner of the match, other potential opponents include Swiatek, Paolini and Svitolina.

My Roland-Garros top ten

Believe it, Mirra 🧡#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/Taqb0R1Wz9

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 6, 2026

Here are my top ten Roland-Garros occurrences, in ascending order:

10: One to watch: Alisa Oktiabreva’s intention was to compete in the qualifying rounds in Paris, but she missed so much time last year because of a wrist injury that she entered the junior competition instead. That turned out well for the 12th-seeded Russian—she won the title. Oktiabreva defeated 2nd seed Sun Xinran 6-2, 6-1 in the final. In doubles, the winners were the unseeded Czech team of Jana Kovackova and Katerina Zajickova. They defeated 8th seeds Jordyn Hazelitt and Welles Nerman. 

9. This shouldn’t even be a topic: Of the four women who competed in the semifinals, two have female coaches. Both Marta Kotyuk and Mirra Andreeva are coached by women (as is quarterfinalist Anna Kalinskaya). The sad thing is that there are still so few female coaches, so we still point them out.

8. The Polish connection: Poland Garros has been a thing for a while; after all, Iga Swiatek has won the tournament four times. And those signs and t-shirts served a great purpose this year, even though Swiatek was defeated in the round of 16. Swiatek’s long-time friend, Maja Chwalinska, a qualifier, made it all the way to the final, providing Polish fans both a big surprise and a reason to cheer.

7. Where did they go?!: Jessica Pegula, former runner-up Jasmine Paolina, Australian Open champion and 2nd seed Elena Rybakina, 4th seed and defending champion Coco Guaff, four-time champion Iga Swiatek, as well as other notable players, were all defeated prior to the quarterfinals. In fact, only Swiatek made it to the round of 16. It was “one of those tournaments” in which the unexpected became the expected.

6. If you don’t like the weather, wait a while—it will get worse: This tournament had sweltering heat, high wind gusts, a lot of rain, and even a hail storm. The roof was open, the roof was closed. Wet conditions affect the clay, of course, but also the heaviness of the ball. But generally, the biggest challenge for players is the wind. Top seed Aryna Sabalenka struggled with it in her quarterfinal, in which she was defeated by Diana Shnaider, and Marta Kostyuk also had trouble with it.

5. Four and counting: Sara Errani, the last of the Four Fighting Italians, just keeps winning. She and partner Andrea Vavassori, the defending champions, won the title again. This makes four titles that they have won. Add that to the six women’s doubles titles and the Olympic gold medal in doubles that Errani has won, and you get a very impressive career.

4. She’s…..back!: Since her 2024 hip surgery and rehab break, former world number 1 Diede De Groot has been working her way back to the elite portion of the wheelchair tennis world. She made a great start in Paris, winning the singles title for the sixth time. De Groot defeated surprise French finalist Ksenia Chasteau 6-1, 6-0 in the final. De Groot and partner Aniek Van Koot made it to the semifinals in doubles, but lost to the top seeds. De Groot has now won 24 singles majors, and--with 43 combined major titles—she has broken the record (42) of her mentor, the great Esther Vergeer.

Queens in Paris 👑👑#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/QpScVMgUSU

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 7, 2026

3. They've done it again: Top seeds Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend won the doubles title, defeating 2nd seeds Anna Danilina and Aleksandra Krunic 6-2, 7-5 in the final. This is the first Roland-Garros title for the team, but the fourth for Siniakova. This is also the third major title for the team of Siniakova and Townsend, who are now one major (U.S. Open) shy of winning a Career Slam. Siniakova, who has now won eleven major doubles titles, already has a Career Slam with former partner Barbora Krejcikova.

2. Jazda!: So many fans, especially Polish fans, had their hopes set on four-time champion Iga Swiatek’s winning another Roland-Garros title. But while Swiatek went out in the round of 16, her long-time friend, Maja Chwalinska, put on what, in my opinion, was the best show of the tournament—and she almost won it. Chwalinska, as I pointed out earlier, plays the same kind of tennis that another great Polish player, Aga Radwanska, played. She spins, lobs and drops her opponents to the point of distraction, and she has the flexibility to retrieve balls from almost everywhere.

Chwalinska had a tough draw. First, she had to win three qualifying matches, then she proceeded to take out Olympic gold medal winner Zheng Qinwen, 23rd seed Elise Mertens, Maria Sakkari, Frenchwoman Diane Parry, 22nd seed Anna Kalinskaya, and 25th seed Diana Shnaider. By the time she reached the final, Chwallinska appeared tired—probably both physically and mentally, and she lost it in straight sets. 

But that doesn’t take away from her story. A few years ago, she took break because of depression. Upon her return, she continued to play ITF and WTA 125 events. In fact, she had played only a few main draw matches when she qualified in Paris. At that time, just two weeks ago, she was number 114 in the world; on Monday, she’ll be number 21. 

1. Thank yourself—it pays: Mirra Andreeva is the very definition of prodigy. When she was 15, she reached the round of 16 at Wimbledon, as a qualifier. Last year, at age 17, she won Indian Wells and Dubai—both 1000 events. Also in 2025, she reached the semifinals at Roland-Garros. It was clear that winning a major was on her agenda, and it was only a matter of which major—and when. Those questions were answered yesterday when Andreeva, at age 19, won the title in Paris. As I wrote yesterday, she had some help from an obviously tired opponent, but that takes nothing away from either her performance in the final, or performance throughout the tournament.

Strong on both the forehand and backhand sides, with a game that works on all surfaces, Andreeva’s only significant flaw has been her temper, which appeared to hurt her rather than fuel her. But under the guidance of coach Conchita Martinez, the teenage champion has learned to control her on-court emotions, and with one major title locked in, one can only imagine how her confidence has expanded.

At every trophy ceremony, Mirra Andreeva—after she has thanked her coach, her team, the tournament staff, and the fans—thanks herself “for believing in myself.” Speaking those words out loud is powerful—it helps to increase the belief. And so far, it’s working for Andreeva. 

Mirra Andreeva holds the Coupe Suzanne-Lenglen in Paris

🐶🏆#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/mN9wuuSV2b

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 6, 2026

For 19-year-old Mirra Andreeva, it wasn't a matter of "if," but--rather--a matter of "when," and "when" kept getting closer and closer. Today, in Paris, it turned into reality, as the young Russian star won the 2026 Roland-Garros title, defeating surprise finalist Maja Chwalinska 6-3, 6-2 in the final. She had some help--qualifier Chwalinska, playing her tenth match of the tournament, had visibly "run out of steam" as she set foot on Court Philippe Chatrier. It's also possible that the occasion finally got to her, though nerves, mental fatigue, and physical fatigue can form a patchwork that makes it hard to distinguish one from another.

But not to take anything away from Andreeva, who was careful to end many points before Chwalinska could work the drop-spin-lob magic that had gotten her to the final. The wind was blowing, and the roof was open, which made things more difficult for both players. Andreeva led 5-0 in the second set, but then Chwalinska held, and then broke Andreeva when she held for the match. It looked like the match might take an interesting turn, but Andreeva broke Chwalinska right back, and finished with a crosscourt backhand winner. 

This was Andreeva's 36th match win of the season, which puts her ahead (in that category) of everyone else on the tour. It was also her 22nd clay court match win, also a leading stat. 

In the past, Andreeva, who is--after all--a teenager, was prone to having emotionally explosive moments on the court. But, under the guidance of coach Conchita Martinez, she has learned to control those, and to put that energy into thinking and hitting the ball. 

An incredible run Maja! 👏👏👏👏#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/MzEaY8mrMl

— wta (@WTA) June 6, 2026

As for Chwalinska, her story remains remarkable. She was number 114 in the world and had played very few WTA main draw matches when she entered the qualifying part of the tournament. She defeated three seeded players, the Olympic gold medal winner, the last Frenchwoman standing, and former top 10 player Maria Sakkari. It was a tough draw, yet she prevailed through nine matches. On Monday, Chwalinska will be number 21 in the world.

QUEEN D 🏆#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/ELuzqrPbD7

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 6, 2026

There was another big winner today: Diede De Groot, whose injury layoff robbed her of her long-held number 1 in the world standing, won the wheelchair singles title. De Groot last won it in 2024, before she had to take time off from the tour. She and partner Aniek Van Koot lost the doubles final, but winning another singles major has to feel especially good for De Groot, who has now won 24 of them.

The Prodigy versus The Magician--will it be Mirra or Maja who holds the Coupe Suzanne-Lenglen?

FIRST GRAND SLAM FINAL 💗

Mirra Andreeva defeats Kostyuk 6-1, 6-3 in the Roland-Garros semifinal! #RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/qTN76DLNJI

— wta (@WTA) June 4, 2026

The "new" Marta Kostyuk---slayer of Iga Swiatek and all-around tennis badass--failed to make an appearance on Court Philippe Chatrier in Paris today. The wind was blowing in all directions, a factor which had hampered top seed Aryna Sabalenka in the quarterfinals, and which appeared to complicate matters for Kostyuk. Kostyuk's serve, which had been one of her biggest advantages throughout the tournament, was inconsistent, at best. And it seemed obvious--at least to me--that the phrase, "under stress, we regress," applied to the Ukrainian star today. She repeatedly set up winning shots, only to fail to keep the ball inside the court, and her opponent's steadiness only increased her frustration.

That opponent was 19-year-old Mirra Andreeva, who--like Kostyuk--is no stranger to having a problem with her nerves, but today, she was in charge throughout the match. The first set, in fact, was a beat-down, with Kostyuk winning only one game. Andreeva then went up a break in the second set, but Kostyuk managed to get the set back on serve when she broke Andreeva--only to be broken back right away. 

And that was also the end of Kostyuk's brief momentum. The roof was closed during the second set, which should have been a significant benefit for Kostyuk, but that benefit went only so far; Andreeva defeated her 6-1, 6-3. Only a few weeks ago, Kostyuk had defeated Andreeva in the Madrid final, and she had also defeated her earlier this year, in Brisbane. The Ukrainian star's 17-match win streak on clay was broken today, but that doesn't make it any less remarkable.

Maja's dream run continues: She's through to the semis with a straight-set win over Anna Kalinskaya.

Adding to wins over Qinwen Zheng, Elise Mertens, Maria Sakkari & Diane Parry since emerging from the qualies draw.

Insane. pic.twitter.com/icPI29CC2X

— Jimmie48 Photography (@JJlovesTennis) June 3, 2026

The second semifinal featured Diana Shnaider--who upset world number 1 Aryna Sabalenka in the quarterfinals--and qualifier Maja Chwalinska, playing her ninth match of the tournament. I expected this match to be entertaining, and I wasn't disappointed. And for those who were waiting for the Polish player to finally be stunned by the occasion--well, that didn't happen. Chwalinska, still with both thighs wrapped, went about her business as though she were playing any match--not one that would determine whether she'd be in a major final.

As for Shnaider--as time went on, she looked a bit tired, but she continued to play a high-quality match with a lot of precision. Both players were seen by the physio, and Chwalinska did her best to shorten the rallies in the second half of the second set. And--as well as Shnaider played--in the end, she was a victim of a kind of Polish trickery that we've seen before (though I've yet to hear a commentator even mention it): Iga Swiatek may be Chwalinska's good friend, but Aga Radwanka's game runs through her veins.

Chwalinska--frequently retrieving the ball from the far corners of the court--dropped, lobbed and sliced it relentlessly. The job may have been easier for her if she had a good down-the-line (on at least one side), but she did the job her own way--and won in straight sets--against a player who has quite a bit of variety in her own game. Chwalinksa hit 32 winners and made 17 unforced errors, and her 7-6 (4), 6-4 victory gives her a place in some rare history. She's now only the second qualifier to reach a major final (Emma Raducanu did it in 2021 at the U.S. Open, and went on to win the title), and she's only the third woman to reach her first WTA-level final at a major, joining Raducanu and Venus Williams.

As I wrote about yesterday, it was just a few days ago that Chwalinska was worried about how she would pay for her hotel room. Now her ranking is projected to rise by 93 points, as she is expected to be number 21 in the world next week.  

Paths to the final:

MAJA CHWALINSKA (Q)
round 1--def. Zheng Qinwen
round 2--def. Elise Mertens (23)
round 3--def. Maria Sakkari
round of 16--def. Diane Parry
quarterfinals--def. Anna Kalinskaya (22)
semifinals--def. Diana Shnaider (25)

MIRRA ANDREEVA (8)

round 1--def. Fiona Ferro (W)
round 2--def. Marina Bassols Ribera
round 3--def. Marie Bouzkova (27)
round of 16--def. Jil Teichmann
quarterfinals--def. Sorana Cirstea (18)
semifinals-- def. Marta Kostyuk (15)

 

Errani and Vavassori break a 17-year curse as the first No.1 seeds to capture the mixed doubles trophy in Paris since 2009! 💪🎾#RolandGarros https://t.co/qh3DVPWanT

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 4, 2026

In other news, top seeds and defending champions Sara Errani and Andrea Vavassori won the mixed doubles title when they defeated Gaby Dabrowski and Evan King 4-6, 6-3, 10-4 in the final. This is the team's fourth major title. 

In wheelchair tennis, top seed Yui Kamiji won her quarterfinal match, as did 4th seed and former world number 1 Diede De Groot. However, De Groot and her partner, Aniek Van Koot lost their doubles semifinal to top seeds Kamiji and Zhu Zhenzhen.

Roland Garros quarterfinals--a story with twists, turns and carnage

From qualifying to the semi-finals 🔥#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/Pi3NkkPyML

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 3, 2026

One by one, they dropped:
5th seed and Charleston champion Jessica Pegula in the first round
former champion Alona Ostapenko in the second round
13trh seed and former runner-up Jasmine Paolini in the second round
2nd seed Elena Rybakina in the second round
4th seed and defending champion Coco Gauff in the third round
6th seed Amanda Anisimova in the third round
10th seed and former runner-up Karolina Muchova in the third round
3rd seed and four-time champion Iga Swiatek in the round of 16


And that brings us to the quarterfinals--but don't expect the plot to twist back to "normal"--it doesn't. 
The match that contained the most drama--before it even began--was the one played between countrywomen Elina Svitolina and Marta Kostyuk. Both women have been on the same upward track, i.e., they have both significantly improved their games and put themselves in much better positions to win big matches (and Svitolina did it after giving birth to her daughter). And they have both had to bear the burden of dealing with the ongoing war in Ukraine, and all the political and rhetorical baggage that goes with that.

There was tension, but it was good tension. The match, unsurprisingly, went to three sets, and it was Swiatek-slayer Kostyuk who prevailed. In fact, in the third set, Kostyuk rose to a level that rendered her very worthy opponent close to helpless at times. The 15th seed, having won 17 straight matches on clay, is undefeated on the surface this season.

Mirra Andreeva ended the impressive run of Sorana Cirstea. This was Cirstea's final Roland-Garros match; she's retiring at the end of this season, which--so far--has proven to be an outstanding one for the 36-year-old Romanian. 

World number 1 and 2026 runner-up Aryna Sabalenka, seeking her first title in Paris, will have to wait another year. Diana Shnaider, the affable Russian in the headscarf, defeated Sabalenka 3-6, 7-5, 6-0 (and no, your eyes aren't deceiving you). Shnaider, in fact, was down a set and 1-4 when she dramatically turned the match around. Shnaider hit ten winners in the final set, and won 17 of the final 22 points of the match. She is now into her first major semifinal. 

And now it's time to circle back to Poland. Iga Swiatek may be gone, but she left a friend behind. Polish player Maja Chwalinska, who had to win three qualifying rounds to get into the main draw, advanced to the semifinals today when she upset 22nd seed Anna Kalinskaya 7-6, 6-3. 

Chwalinska, who is ranked number 114 in the world, had already knocked out Olympic gold medal winner Zheng Qinwen, 23rd seed Elise Mertens, Maria Sakkari, and last-Frenchwoman-standing Diane Parry. 

A woman who, a few days ago, wasn't sure how she would pay for the unexpected extended stay at her hotel, is now in the final four of a major, and is only the second qualifier in the Open Era to reach the Roland-Garros semifinals. The 24-year-old Chwalinska took a break from tennis a few years ago in order to deal with ongoing depression, and she returned to the tour with a different attitude about competition, winning and losing. 

Chwalinksa has competed mostly in ITF and WTA 125 events; prior to her Roland-Garros run, she had won only three main draw WTA matches. The story of this tournament is about a Polish woman, yes, but maybe it's not about Swiatek. (And Chwalinska's tennis sometimes brings to mind that of another great Polish player--also not Swiatek.) 

Here is the semifinal draw:
Diana Shnaider (25) v. Maja Chwalinka 
Marta Kostyuk (15) v. Mirra Andreeva (8)

Roland-Garros quarterfinal viewing may require more than popcorn

You better believe it!

Maja Chwalinska is doing incredible things at Roland Garros, she's on her 7th win a row since starting in Qs two weeks ago. pic.twitter.com/mlj5XX33UZ

— Jimmie48 Photography (@JJlovesTennis) June 1, 2026

This year, the quarterfinals in Paris are especially intriguing. Two of the hottest players on the clay tour, countrywomen Elina Svitolina and Marta Kostyuk, will compete for a spot in the semifinals. Svitolina prevailed over Belinda Bencic in the round of 16 (and delivered a third set bagel), and Kostyuk--who has yet to lose a match on clay this season--has been the talk of the tournament because her round of 16 victim was four-time champion Iga Swiatek. 

I'm a long-time Kostyuk believer. I always thought that it was just a matter of time before the world number 15, who already had the necessary aggression in her game, would gain the mental control that she needed in order to increase the quality of her court strategy and stay calm in difficult moments. We're now seeing that Marta Kostyuk (coached by Sandra Zaniewska, who--not surprisingly--knew how to help her player reach more of her potential), and she's something to behold.

We're also seeing the "new" Svitolina, who is just as formidable. Long known for her movement, the Ukrainian star returned from her maternity leave with a much better serve and bigger hitting.  

As for Swiatek, she fell to Kostyuk rather easily, and--as many have pointed out--it wasn't that big a surprise. The Polish star and former number 1 in the world hasn't been herself lately, but--the last time the tennis world buzzed about Swiatek's not being herself, she won Wimbledon.

Another player who has been very much in form lately is Anastasia Potapova, who now plays for Austria.  However, Potapova was defeated in the round of 16 by former countrywoman Anna Kalinskaya. Kalinskaya, one of three Russians still in the draw, defeated Potapova 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 (7). The other Russians are 8th seed Mirra Andreeva, who defeated a resrugent Jil Teichmann in the round of 16, and Diana Shnaider, who defeated Madison Keys. 

And while Swiatek may be gone, Poland is nevertheless represented in the quarterfinals: Qualifier Maja Chwalinska knocked out Frenchwoman Diane Parry in the round of 16. 

World number 1 Aryna Sabalenka, who trying to earn her first Roland-Garros title, defeated Naomi Osaka in straight sets to advance to the quarterfinals, and Sorana Cirstea--doing the farewell tour of a lifetime--reached the quarterfinals by defeating Wang Xiyu.

Here is the quarterfinal draw:

Aryna Sabalenka (1) v. Diana Shnaider (25) 
Anna Kalinskaya (22) v. Maja Chwalinska (Q)
Elina Svitolina (7) v. Marta Kostyuk (15)
Mirra Andreeva (8) v. Sorana Cirstea (18)

Meanwhile, in doubles, top seeds Katerina Siniakova and Taylor  Townsend have advanced to the quarterfinals, as have number 2  seeds Anna Dalinina and Alexandra Krunic.

Russians dominate Roland-Garros round of 16, and there are also some surprises

This way into the second week!

Maja Chwalinska and Iga Swiatek are in the fourth round of a Grand Slam together for the first time. pic.twitter.com/sbuJRDzozv

— Jimmie48 Photography (@JJlovesTennis) May 30, 2026

When we were sorting through Polish players likely to advance to the round of 16 at Roland-Garros, I doubt that many (or any) of us picked Maja Chwalinska, but the world number 114, a qualifier in Paris, has made it to the final sixteen. Not only that, she did it by taking out Olympic gold medal winner Zheng Qinwen, 23rd seed Elise Mertens, and Maria Sakkari. Prior to this week, Chwalinska had never made it past the second round of a major.

Of special interest is that Chwalinska's opponent in the round of 16 will be Frenchwoman Diane Parry; Parry upset 6th seed Amanda Anisimova in the third round.

Of course, Chwalinska will be joined by countrywoman Iga Swiatek, who has won Roland-Garros four times. Swiatek is seeded third at this tournament, and her round of 16 opponent will be Madrid champion Marta Kostyuk, who appears to have finally come into her own, and who should be a formidable opponent for the former world number 1. 

The big news today as that defending champion Coco Gauff fell to Anastasia Potapova, who defeated her 4-6, 7-6 (1), 6-4 in a long and thrilling match. Potapova no longer plays for Russia, but three Russians have made it to the last sixteen: Diana Shnaider, Anna Kalinskaya and Mirra Andreeva. 

Here is the round of 16 draw:

Aryna Sabalenka (1) v. Naomi Osaka (16)
Madison Keys (19) v. Diana Shnaider (25)
Anastasia Potapova (19) v. Anna Kalinskaya (22)
Maja Chwalinska v. Diane Parry
Elina Svitolina (7) v. Belinda Bencic (11)
Marta Kostyuk (15) v. Iga Swiatek (3)
Mirra Andreeva (8) v. Jil Teichmann
Sorana Cirstea (18) v. Wang Xiyu

In addition to Madrid champion Kostyuk, there are two other pre-Roland-Garros clay court winners: Svitolina won Rome, and Andreeva won Linz. Madrid and Rome are WTA 1000 events, Linz is a WTA 500 event. And Cirstea, of course, having announced her retirement, is on a roll that could take her anywhere. 

Predicting the French Open champion--not a good idea

During the 2026 clay season, we’ve had four 500-level tournaments and two 1000-level tournaments, which means that we’ve had six champions—and none of them is named Swiatek or Sabalenka. And while winning a pre-French Open clay court tournament—even a 1000—doesn’t always translate to winning the French Open, we would have been within our rights to think that the above mentioned players would each have won one. Or that at least one of them would have won one. 

Four-time French Open champion Iga Swiatek has been off her game for a while, though, in Rome, we saw a lot of that Iga—the one who came charging in in 2020 and won the title without dropping a set. Swiatek would go on to win the tournament in 2022, 2023 and 2024. 

The Polish star has yet to win a title of any kind in 2026, but a recent coaching change, whose results were manifested in Rome, shows much promise. When asked, in a press conference in Rome, whether we can now say that she’s “coming back,” Swiatek replied, “Where was I?” Exactly.

As for world number 1 Aryna Sabalenka, her story is a bit different. She had to withdraw from Stuttgart because of an injury, so she began her clay season in Madrid, where she reached the quarterfinals. She was defeated in that round by Hailey Baptiste, despite having held six match points. In Rome, Sabalenka was up a set and a break in the third round, but lost to a resurgent Sorana Cirstea (it was, in fact, the Romanian’s first defeat of a number 1 player).

Sabalenka has won four hard court majors, and last year, she came close to adding a very big clay court title—she reached the final of the French Open, but lost to Coco Gauff. 

In the four 500 tournaments of 2026, we’ve had four champions. Jessica Pegula, the defending champion in Charleston, won the title again. She did it the hard way, and earned the nickname, Three-Set Jess. Mirra Andreeva won the Linz title, Elena Rybakina won in Stuttgart (her second title there), and Emma Navarro--who has been dealing with a chronic illness for a year and a half--upset top seed Vicky Mboko in the Strasbourg final. 

The drama in both Madrid and Rome was increased because of the standings of the champions. Marta Kostyuk won the Madrid title. Kostyuk—who had just won a 250-level tournament in France—had a tough draw, which included Pegula, Linda Noskova and Anastasia Potapova. In the past, the very talented Ukrainian player might have lost her way, but the Marta Kostyuk of today is calmer on court, and more able to make smart shot decisions. 

The winner in Rome was Elina Svitolina, and this was her third Rome title. Svitolina last won Rome in 2018, and so much has changed in her life since then. Always a talented player, whose  movement was considered her greatest asset, Svitolina’s tennis career was interrupted by marriage, childbirth, and an ongoing war. Upon returning to the tour after her maternity leave, the Ukrainian star was a different player, with a better serve, more variety, and bigger hitting. This year in Rome, she did what few could do: She defeated Rybakina in the quarterfinals, Swiatek in the semifinals, and Gauff in the final.

So who is the most likely to win at Roland Garros? Anyone’s guess is good at this point. Sadly, 2021 champion Barbora Krejcikova sustained another injury last week while playing in the final of a 125 event. Krejcikova  is now a victim of the Czech Curse, which has already put both Karolina Muchova (who is currently healthy) and Marketa Vondrousova out of commission for months at a time. Muchova, a French Open finalist in 2023, doesn’t have the momentum that we would expect a contender to have, but she could nevertheless make things difficult for other top players in Paris.

Coco Gauff is the defending champion in Paris, and—while her results lately have been inconsistent—Gauff is capable of showing up in her best form. Whatever wobbles she has, she also tends to have a champion’s mind when she plays in big events. 

Elena Rybakina has won a major on a hard court and a major on grass, and there’s no reason—given the strength of her game—that she can’t win one on clay. Rybakina’s serve makes her dangerous on any surface, and her steadiness on court has returned. 

Mirra Andreeva—-though she is sometimes distracted by her own emotions—is no stranger to a big stage. In addition to reaching the French Open semifinals in 2024, the Russian star has also won two 1000-level tournaments. 

As for Kostyuk—the success she’s having has been a long time coming. Between improving her game and settling her mentality, the Ukrainian star has established herself as someone whom no one will want to see on the other side of the net at Roland Garros.

And that brings me to Svitolina, who can now be considered a complete player, and one who is—in my opinion—a real contender in Paris. Her performance in Rome was a feat that few could have pulled off, and there’s no reason to think that the clay in Paris will intimidate her.

Swiatek is likely to have her work cut out for her, for—if things go as they “should” go—she’ll face Alona Ostapenko in the third round. Ostapenko is 6-0 against Swiatek, and—more than any other player on the tour—has figured out how to flummox the former world number 1 and four-time French Open champion. Ostapenko’s formula is a simple one: Don’t give Swiatek any time to set up her shots. One would think that—by now—Swiatek would have a strategy to counter Ostapenko’s speed and aggression. We’ll see.

Sabalenka and Gauff are both in the upper half of the draw, while Rybakina and Swiatek (along with Svitolina and Kostyuk) are in the bottom half. Every major draw is very competitive, but—since there is no clear favorite in Paris this year—the draw seems especially competitive. 

We won’t have to wait for the competition to heat, though. 17th seed Iva Jovic and Alex Eala meet in the first round, which feels unfair, but it’s just the (bad) luck of the draw. Also of interest in the first round: 2025 semifinalist Lois Boisson—who has had her share of injury woes—will face 22nd seed Anna Kalinskaya, and 2021 champion Krejcikova will play 26th seed Hailey Baptiste. 

Deep into clay seaon, more questions than answers

BACK TO BACK TITLES 🏆😤

🧱Rouen
🧱 Madrid@marta_kostyuk | #MMOPEN pic.twitter.com/cB0ptHc6FS

— wta (@WTA) May 2, 2026

Charleston, Linz, Stuttgart, and Madrid are already in the past, as well as a few 250 clay tournaments. The 500 champions are Jessica Pegula (Charleston), Mirra Andreeva (Linz) and Elena Rybakina (Stuttgart). And now we have our first 1000 champion--Marta Kostyuk. Coming up are one more 1000-level event, the Italian Open, and one more 500-level event, in Strasbourg.

Missing--so far--among the winners are world number 1 Aryna Sabalenka and four-time French Open champion Iga Swiatek. And the "surprise" (not to me, but more on that later) winner is Kostyuk, who defeated Andreeva in today's Madrid final.

Kostyuk has shown not only talent, but super athleticism, for some time. However, her inability to control her on-court mentality led to what had to be a very frustrating inconsistency. However, last month she won a 250-level clay court tournament in Rouen, France. And perhaps even more important--though she lost to Sabalenka in the Brisbane final--Kostyuk upset three top ten players: Amanda Anisimova, Mirra Andreeva and Jessica Pegula. 

The Ukrainian player explained recently that "...I've always wanted to change my overall perspective on tennis. For me it was always very, very emotional, and I would spend a lot of energy. Everything would matter so much to me. Whether it was wins or losses, it was very difficult to live in this constant emotional bombing from the inside."

Kostyuk credits psychotherapy for helping her change her mentality. "It's not an easy road. It's a very ugly road, I would say. But I always knew how I wanted to be on the court, how I didn't want to be on the court.”

Gone are the days when a "clay court specialist" was destined to win the French Open. Yes, clay court specialists may have an edge, but more and more tour players have become proficient on more than one surface. And with Swiatek not in her top form at the moment, the upcoming French Open feels less about the Polish star and more about mystery.

This is not to count Swiatek out. Last year, people were ready to count her out in a big way, and her response was to win Wimbledon. Iga Swiatek may be struggling, but she still understands clay, and she still has the mind--and the experience--of a champion. 

In 2022, Swiatek won Rome, then went on to win in Paris. In 2024, she won Madrid, then won another French Open title. But--even though they are both 1000 events--winning Rome and/or Madrid does not appear to make a player any more likely to win at Roland Garros. The Madrid conditions, in particular, are different, because of the altitude.  

Who else, besides the above-named players, has a reasonable chance to win in Paris? If 2021champion Barbora Krejckova were healthy, I'd give her a definite "yes," but she has fallen prey to the Czech injury/illness curse. However, her countrywoman, Karolina Muchova--who is currently enjoying good health--is certainly a candidate, as are defending champion Coco Gauff  and last year's runner-up, Sabalenka.

Venus Williams--wild card or fold?

Venus Williams and Katie Boulter defeat Jiang/Xu 4-6, 6-3, [10-7] to reach the second round in Madrid.

That’s Venus’ first win since the US Open.

Crowd loved it and they were so happy as well. pic.twitter.com/8T1Phj0Sor

— José Morgado (@josemorgado) April 25, 2026

Last week, a maintenance specialist was in my house. I had the television on and was watching Venus Williams playing in Madrid. He passed by, saw the screen, and asked, "Is that an old match?" I told him no, it was Madrid. He watched for a few moments, then said, "She's getting her butt handed to her." I explained to him that gets wild cards now, loses early—almost always in the first round (she won her first round in DC last year)—but keeps playing.

"Good for her!" he said, then went on to talk about how the Williams sisters had been through so much in their careers, and how they had changed professional tennis. 

This, of course, isn't everyone's view. On social media, a lot of people are saying that Williams should stop accepting wild cards so that "deserving" young players  can get them—or that she should enter qualifying rounds.  

But that isn't how it works. By its very nature, a wild card is a gift--you don't have to "deserve" it. Venus Williams is a big fan draw, so it makes sense that a tournament's officials would want her to play. If she continues losing in the first round, will she cease to be a fan draw? I think so, though I'm prepared to be wrong about that.

Several years ago, at a press conference, I began a question to Venus with "When you retire--assuming that you do...." Obviously, I was on to something; even then, I guess I knew that I needed to be careful how I used the "r" word when talking with her. 

Venus Williams will retire some day; everyone does. And while I understand that a lot of people think that the time has come for her to leave the sport (at least, in singles), the idea that she's "tarnishing her legend" is--in my opinion--quite a reach. 

(In fact, we could turn the whole thing around and observe the inner strength that it takes, at 45 years old, with several chronic health conditions, to continually get beaten in first rounds and still go out on the court and give it your best.)

Venus Williams has won seven singles majors, fourteen doubles majors, two mixed doubles majors, and an Olympic gold medal, and she has been ranked number 1 in the world in both singles and doubles. I think that her legend is intact. 

A lot of people tend to want athletes to “retire gracefully,” the way that they want those of us who are older to “age gracefully”—whatever that means. Is Venus Williams—who has now lost ten first-round matches in a row—deluding herself by thinking that she can compete on a reasonable level on the tour? Perhaps. But my expectation is that—if she can still draw a big crowd—tournament officials will probably keep giving her wild cards.

Williams did win a doubles match in Madrid. She and Katie Boulter, playing together for the first time, defeated Jiang Xinyu and Xu Yifan in the first round. They then lost to 7th seeds Hsieh Su-wei and Sofia Kenin in the round of 16. 

Jessica Pegula, 2025 champion, wins Charleston Open again

Jessica Pegula (photo by Daniel Ward)

Though she took on the nickname of Three-Set Jess this week, top seed and defending champion Jessica Pegula put a stop to the long grind when it mattered most; she won the Credit One Charleston Open final in an hour and 22 minutes. Competing against surprise finalist Yuliia Starodubtseva, Pegula saved five of six break points, and her first and second serve win percentages were 76.5 and 52.2. 

Jessica Pegula (photo by Daniel Ward)

The defending champion glided rather easily through the first set, breaking her opponent twice. Up 6-2, 5-0, however, the momentum shifted a bit, as Starodubtseva broke Pegula on her fourth break point. She then held, but Pegula was successful on her second attempt to serve for the championship. 

Despite the 6-2, 6-2 scoreline, the match was entertaining, and included some first-rate shot-making from both players. 

Yuliia Starodubtseva (photo by Daniel Ward)

After the match, Starodubtseva joked, “I really hoped this was her best match this week, because to be the only two-setter in the tournament is not nice.” The runner-up talked about her anxiety before both the final and her semifinal against Madison Keys. She said that she couldn’t sleep because “…my thoughts kind of didn't stop. It was like, you know, loud in my head last three days.” She then acknowledged that this is in issue that she needs to work on, but also, she believes that the more she advances to big matches, the problem is likely to take care of itself. 

For her part, Pegula said that she was very pleased with the level at which she played today. She had a plan and she stuck to it, even when her opponent made changes and picked up her level. “I think I was able to like go right back to what I know I needed to do and not let her kind of lull me into playing her game, and I was able to kind of nip that in the bud, I guess, any time it felt like it was starting to shift.”

Pegula is the first player to repeat her victory in Charleston since Serena Williams did it in 2013. Williams, like Pegula, won back-to-back tournaments. 

This year, the Credit One Charleston Open became the first 500 tournament to award prize money equal to that awarded at ATP tournaments on the same level. Pegula received $354, 355, and Starodubtseva received $218, 225. The total on-site purse was $2.3 million, and the total player compensation was $2.5 million. Starodubtseva said that she will now be able to have her physio travel with her in Europe.

Desirae Krawczyk and Caty McNally (photo by Daniel Ward)

There was also an interesting story in the doubles competition. Desirae Krawczyk’s partner withdrew from the tournament, so she had to scramble to find a partner. Fortunately, Caty McNally was available. But there’s more—their opponents in the final—Anna Bondar and Magdalena Frech—also got together at the last minute. And to make the circumstances even stranger, Bondar and Frech played each other in the singles draw; Bondar won, 7-5, 6-3, in the second round. 

Krawczyk and McNally won the championship match 6-3, 6-2. Krawczyk also won the tournament, with Danielle Collins, in 2023, and McNally won it, with Hailey Baptiste, in 2021.

Magdalena Frech, Anna Bondar, Desirae Krawczyk, Caty McNally
(photo by Daniel Ward)

all photos by Daniel Ward

Yuliia Starodubtseva--the Charleston Open's surprise finalist

player photos by Daniel Ward

The Charleston Open is known for many things, and one of them is the introduction of relatively unknown players to a wide audience. This year, all eyes are on 26-year-old Yuliia Starodubtseva of Ukraine. Starodubtseva was scheduled to play in the qualifying rounds, but because of a withdrawal, she was moved into the main draw. Once there, she took out Zhang Shuai, Ekaterine Gorgodze, Renata Zarazua, McCartney Kessler, and 5th seed and 2019 champion Madison Keys.

Starodubtseva played college tennis at Old Dominion University. When she was 17, she said that she didn't have the money to go professional, and she thought that going to school in the U.S. would be a good idea, especially after "I didn't do super well" in the few tournaments that she played. She had friends on the Old Dominion tennis team, and the school gave her a full scholarship.

After she graduated from Old Dominion, Starodubtseva still didn't have enough money to pursue a professional career, so she became a tennis coach at Westchester Country Club in New York. She coached men and women, and she was also the coach at a children's tennis camp. Sometimes, she said, she worked ten hours a day. Of interest: The Westchester courts on which Starodubtseva coached were green clay.

Starodubtseva met her boyfriend, Pearse Dolan, in college, and--though he wasn't her coach at the beginning of her professional career--he coaches her now.  She has also added Eric Hechtman to her team. Starodubtseva describes herself as thriving on big stages, so today's final will give her a great opportunity.

Jessica Pegula goes three sets again, and advances to the Charleston final

Jessica Pegula (photo by Daniel Ward)

Top seed and defending champion Jessica Pegula, who is now known as Three-Set Jess, did it again today. She defeated rising star and 4th seed Iva Jovic 6-4, 5-7, 6-3 at the Credit One Charleston Open. The match lasted two hours and 35 minutes; she has now spent more than ten hours on the court this week. 

Iva Jovic (photo by Daniel Ward)

 
Pegula told the media: "...I don't think I'm playing my best tennis, either, and I think I've had to kind of find things that are working on the day and kind of find patterns that are working for me that day when the rest of my game isn't there or certain shots aren't there. So I think that's something I've been doing really well this week."

Pegula also addressed her serve, which is good deal faster than it was a year ago. "I'm always working a little bit on placement and getting my serve bigger, but it kind of just happened naturally with all the stuff that we've been working on....

"And I have a pretty live arm. And so I've always thought my serve could be much bigger for my size because with my arm being pretty live for how tall I am. 

"I'm always working a little bit on placement and getting my serve bigger, but it kind of just happened naturally with all the stuff that we've been working on. I haven't really changed much, to be honest, as far as using my legs or my motion. It's really more just, I think, using my hand....And I have a pretty live arm. And so I've always thought my serve could be much bigger for my size, because with my arm being pretty live for all tall I am. So I've always kind of been like, why isn't my serve bigger?"

Yuliia Starodubtseva (photo by Daniel Ward)

In the other semifinal, Yuliia Starodubtseva defeated 2019 champion and 5th seed Madison Keys 6-1, 6-4. Starodubtseva was supposed to have competed in the qualifying rounds, but when Amanda Anisimova withdrew from the tournament, the Ukrainian player was placed into the main draw, and she has certainly made the most of it. Today, she experienced something that is quite typical of a fairly inexperienced player competing against a top seed: She had a chance to serve for the match at 5-3 in the second set, and she was broken. But then she broke Keys at love to get a chance to compete in her first WTA final.

Madison Keys (photo by Daniel Ward)

"I feel like I did a great job breaking her all the first set, and I felt like I could do it again," Starodubtseva said of how she managed the victory after dropping serve.

Pegula and Starodubtseva, who is number 89 in the world, have never played each other. Starodubtseva's aggressive style of play should make for an interesting final. 

The doubles final will feature the team of Desirae Krawczyk and Caty McNally competing against the team of Anna Bondar and Magdalena Frech. 

all photos by Daniel Ward