The most likely player to win Wimbleon is ______

The projected quarter-finals for the ladies' singles draw 🌱 pic.twitter.com/kABZpXfVGQ

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) June 26, 2026

I don't know about everyone else, but I can't find a way to fill in that blank. Here are the women who--on paper--should be considered major contenders:

Defending champion Iga Swiatek: I never thought that we'd use the word "slump" (a word I dislike, anyway) to describe the former world number 1 and six-time major champion, but Swiatek appears to be in one. She has not won a title in 2026, which--for her--is a very significant fact. Swiatek has kept her pre-Wimbledon grass season short, opting to play only in Bad Hamburg, where she lost in the second round to Emma Navarro. 

Swiatek's possible (if things go as they "should," which they never do) draw is very tough, and pits her against the likes of rising star Alex Eala, former runner-up Jasmine Paolini (herself in something of a slump, but she should not be counted out), and 2023 champion Elena Rybakina. 

It's worth noting however, that the last time that the Polish star's career was widely thought to be going downhill was in June of 2025, and her response was to win her first Wimbledon title.

World number 1 Aryna Sabalenka: Sabalenka has never held the Wimbledon title. She excels on hard courts, but her game is such that can do well on grass, too. Sabalenka began her year by defending her Brisbane title, and then reaching the final of the Australian Open, in which she lost to Elena Rybakina. The world number 1 then went on to win the Sunshine Double. 

Following her victories in Indian Wells and Miami, Sabalenka, like Swiatek, chose to play in only one Wimbledon warmup tournament--the German Open, in which she reached the quarterfinals and was defeated by Jessica Pegula. That experience included a third set loss of 0-6. Sabalenka also lost her Roland-Garros quarterfinal third set 0-6  against Diana Shnaider, who handled the wind much better than her opponent did. Needless to say, Wimbledon's top seed has been feeling a bit shaky.

Former champion Elena Rybakina: Rybakina's career has been up and down for a while, though she gave it a decisive "up" when she won the Australian Open in January (defeating Sabalenka), then reached a career-high ranking of number 2 in the world. Rybakina won Stuttgart, and elected to play in two grass warmup tournaments--Queen's Club and the German Open, in which she reached the quarterfinals and the second round, respectively. 

The others: French Open champion Mirra Andreeva is, no doubt, going to feel the pressure of playing her home major even more now that she won a major. Her potential draw is very tough, and includes 2024 champion Barbora Krejcikova in the second round, and it doesn't get easier from there. She would likely face Karolina Muchova in the next round, and possibly Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula. 

And speaking of Krejcikova--if it weren't for the Czech Curse, she'd be on the above list of contenders. But chronic injury and illness have damaged her momentum. However, if she shows up healthy and confident, she could still be dangerous. Karolina Muchova is healthy, for a change, and she just won Bad Homburg, her first title on grass. A healthy Muchova with momentum can not only stun the crowds with her shot-making--she can do a lot of damage in her quarter of the draw.

2025 runner-up Amanda Anisimova needs to be in the mix, too. Anisimova was out for a couple of months this year with a wrist injury, but is healthy now; she made it to the quarterfinals at Queen's Club.

Elina Svitolina, who is playing the best tennis of her career, had to withdraw before her Bad Homburg quarterfinal because of a hip injury. If she's healthy, she should be considered a major threat in London, where she has reached the semifinals twice.

Also of interest is Linda Noskova, who has come into her own lately, winning the German Open and entering the top 10. The woman whom Noskova defeated in the Berlin final--Jessica Pegula--is in very good form right now. She may have lost the Berlin final, but all the parts of Pegula's game have come together in a way that now makes her a threat on any surface. 

And finally, it's never a good idea to count out Coco Gauff. She and Pegula will potentially meet in the quarterfinals. Pegula is 5-3 against Gauff, and both times that they have played on grass, Pegula has won. 

In Paris, the weather--which included intense heat, rain, wind, and hail--was a major factor. In London, we know that--at the very least--intense heat will affect play. 

And speaking of factors that can affect play--seven-time champion Serena Williams is back, and her potential draw is a very difficult one. In the first round, she plays Maya Joint, who hasn't been at her best lately, but is nevertheless a good player. If Williams gets past Joint, she'll probably have to play Alex Eala in the second round, and that would be a much bigger task. And should she emerge the winner of the match, other potential opponents include Swiatek, Paolini and Svitolina.