Saturday, January 31, 2026

Calm, cool, collected--and lethal: Elena Rybakina upends the plot in Melbourne

As I wrote a couple of days ago, it was no surprise that the last two women standing at the Australian Open were two-time champion (and world number 1) Aryna Sabalenka and 5th seed Elena Rybakina. And--while many major finals contain interesting backstories--this one was played within a rather dramatic context. Sabalenka lost the 2024 final to Madison Keys, and she also lost the 2024 French Open final, so one would correctly presume that The Tiger was very much on the prowl to hold another Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup. 

As for Rybakina, she has had to deal with what we will shorthand-call "issues" with her coach, as well as injuries and a recurring problem with viral illness (Chris Evert, in my opinion, correctly identified the recurring physical health problems as likely having an emotional connection). The 5th seed, though immensely talented, had won only one major, Wimbledon, in 2022. And that victory was darkened by the tournament directors' decision not to award her ranking points.

In other words, both players really wanted/needed to win the Australian Open and get a big boost for the 2026 season. Theoretically, the match-up should have made a great visual story--the fiery, quick-to-anger Sabalenka and the cool, often-expressionless Rybakina (who possesses what I call the Evert Factor). But in this match, Sabalenka--except for right toward the end--kept her emotions in check, at least the ones that had to do with anger and frustration.

Prior to reaching the final, neither woman had dropped a set. It seemed inevitable that one of them would drop a set during the final, and one of them did. And after that, fans got all the drama that they could handle.

Elena Rybakina broke early in the first set, and she also introduced a tactic that would flummox her opponent repeatedly--a high kick second serve that won her a lot of points. Rybakina took that set 6-4. In the second set, Sabalenka--with her deft movement and outstanding net play--took control of points in a way that we have come to expect. She also won with 95% of her first serves, while Rybakina's second serve magic dissipated. The Tiger was in charge with her own 6-4 set.

And she charged into the final set with full confidence, quickly going up 3-0. And just when it looked like the world number 1 was this close to winning her third Australian Open title, a switch got turned on in her opponent. A turning point took place, at least in part, when Rybakina's very talky coach told her "more energy!" She got the message, hit an ace, and turned into the player we saw in the first set, holding for 1-3. It wasn't long before it was 3-all, and the tension was so thick, I could feel it through the screen. Sabalenka, with good reason, looked frustrated, while Rybakina looked--like she always looks. 

Rybakina then broke Sabalenka, and began a run that mirrored the run of her opponent in the second-third sets; the Kazakhstani star's first serve win percentage in the third set was 85. Serving for the match, she went down 0-15, but that was just a blip. When championship point arrived, I thought, “She’s going to hit an ace,” and she did. 

Rybankina’s 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 victory gives her a second major singles title, and twelve titles total. She is the second player in the past decade to win the WTA Finals, then go on to win the Australian Open--Caroline Wozniacki did it in 2017-18. And she is the first player to defeat both the world number 1 and the world number 2 in consecutive events in which they both appeared, in the history of the WTA rankings. (She also did it at Indian Wells in 2023.)

The match could hardly have been closer. Both players won 92 points, and they had almost identical first and second serve win percentages. The contest was all that one could hope for in a major final. On Monday, Rybakina will be ranked number 3 in the world. 

And speaking of rankings--on Monday, Elise Mertens will again become the world's number 1 player in doubles. She and partner Zhang Shuai, seeded 4th, defeated 7th seeds Anna Danilina and Aleksandra Krunic 7-6, 6-4 in the final to win their first major as a team. This is Mertens' third Australian Open doubles title (she won the others with Aryna Sabalenka and Hsieh Su-wei, respectively), and her sixth major doubles title. It is Zhang's second Australian Open title (she won the first one with Sam Stosur) and her third major doubles title.

In juniors, 3rd seed Ksenia Efremova of France won the singles title when she defeated Russian player Ekaterina Tupitsyna In doubles, the Czech team (you know that Czechs have to be in here somewhere) of Alena and Jana Kovackova, the top seeds, defeated another Czech team, Tereza Hermanova and Denisa Zoldakova, 6-1, 6-3 in the final. 

The mixed doubles title, of course, was decided earlier in the week. Australian wild cards Olivia Gadecki and John Peers defeated the French team of Kiki Mladenovic and Manuel Guinard 4-6, 6-3, 10-8 in the final. In doing so, Gadecki and Peers became the first team to win back-to-back mixed doubles titles in 37 years.

There was big news in women's wheelchair competition. Former world number 1 Diede de Groot, who took a year and a half off because of injury, hip surgery and also a need for a break, almost defended her 2024 singles title. The unseeded de Groot reached the semifinals, which--after the final--she said was a pleasant surprise. Meanwhile, her rival, world number 1Yui Kamiji, was upset in the semifinals by 3rd seed Li Xiaochui, who would go on to defeat de Groot, 6-1, 6-2, in the final. We're not used to seeing such a shake-up in women's wheelchair competition.  There is, however, every reason to believe that once de Groot gets a bit more into her groove, she will dominate again. We rarely see an athlete as accomplished as Diede the Great.

This was, however, Li's tournament. She and partner Wang Ziying, the top seeds, defeated 2nd seeds Yui Kamiji and Zhu Zhenzhen  6-4, 6-3, in the final.

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