A closer look at the U.S. Open quarterfinals--the X factors

Amanda Anisimova on facing Iga Swiatek next at the U.S. Open

“Who would’ve thought we’d meet again so soon? I’m super excited. It’s gonna be a great match… I hope… this time” 😂😂😂 pic.twitter.com/1ZgUGi4HQ3

— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) September 2, 2025

For the first time in the Open Era, there are three Czech women in the U.S. Open quarterfinals. That alone makes the draw interesting, especially considering the fact that two of those players, Karolina Muchova and Marketa Vondrousova have spent way too much time off of the tour because of chronic injury problems. Yet even with this misfortune, Vondrousova found a way to win Wimbledon, be a runner-up at the French Open, and win an Olympic silver medal. 

The other Czech player, Barbora Krejcikova, has won both the French Open and Wimbledon, yet--because of a back injury and an illness, she didn't re-enter the tour until May of this year. 

One can't help but believe that if these Czech stars stayed healthy, they would have lifted a lot more trophies. 

A match-up in a major is never as cut-and-dried as it appears on the draw sheet. Here are the stories behind the stories in the 2025 U.S. Open singles draw:

Aryna Sabalenka (1) v. Marketa Vondrousova: World number 1 Sabalenka, the two-time Australian Open defending champion, lost this year's final to Madison Keys. She reached the final of the French Open (perhaps to the surprise of some people) this year, only to lose to Coco Gauff. She is also the defending champion at the U.S. Open, and is undoubtedly very motivated to win a major this year. The good news is that this motivation could make her quite deadly. Standing in her way, though, is the unflappable Vondrousova, who is capable of beating anyone on a given day. If she can get into Sabalenka's head, her chances are good.

Jessica Pegula (4) v. Barbora Krejcikova: Jessica Pegula is a very good hard court player. She was, in fact, last year's runner-up, losing to Sabalenka in a very close match (7-5, 7-5). She, too, will be very motivated. Krejcikova played what may have been one of the matches of her life in the round of 16, and it would be reasonable to expect her to be both mentally and physically drained from the drama alone. But the two-time major champion has extraordinary mental strength, so the usual expectations may not apply to her.

Karolina Muchova (11) v. Naomi Osaka (23): Muchova, who sustained a lower back injury during her round of 16 match, is a question mark. In today's round of 16 match, she was able to defeat Marta Kostyuk, an especially tough cookie, even while she was in pain and her movement was hampered. But the stylish Czech star doesn't get a day off, and if her injury continues to flare in her quarterfinal match against two-time champion Osaka, it could spell trouble; Osaka is playing at a very high level. On the other hand, if she's pain-free, she can give Osaka trouble with her extreme athleticism and her stunning shot-making ability.

Amanda Anisimova (8) v. Iga Swiatek (2): The X factor here is obvious: Swiatek double-bageled Anisimoa in the Wimbledon final, and the desire for redemption has to be very strong. Amanda Anisimova is a very fine player who has takena a long and winding road to get where she is, and all eyes will be on her as she gets another chance to play a big match against 2022 champion Swiatek.