Deep into clay seaon, more questions than answers

BACK TO BACK TITLES 🏆😤

🧱Rouen
🧱 Madrid@marta_kostyuk | #MMOPEN pic.twitter.com/cB0ptHc6FS

— wta (@WTA) May 2, 2026

Charleston, Linz, Stuttgart, and Madrid are already in the past, as well as a few 250 clay tournaments. The 500 champions are Jessica Pegula (Charleston), Mirra Andreeva (Linz) and Elena Rybakina (Stuttgart). And now we have our first 1000 champion--Marta Kostyuk. Coming up are one more 1000-level event, the Italian Open, and one more 500-level event, in Strasbourg.

Missing--so far--among the winners are world number 1 Aryna Sabalenka and four-time French Open champion Iga Swiatek. And the "surprise" (not to me, but more on that later) winner is Kostyuk, who defeated Andreeva in today's Madrid final.

Kostyuk has shown not only talent, but super athleticism, for some time. However, her inability to control her on-court mentality led to what had to be a very frustrating inconsistency. However, last month she won a 250-level clay court tournament in Rouen, France. And perhaps even more important--though she lost to Sabalenka in the Brisbane final--Kostyuk upset three top ten players: Amanda Anisimova, Mirra Andreeva and Jessica Pegula. 

The Ukrainian player explained recently that "...I've always wanted to change my overall perspective on tennis. For me it was always very, very emotional, and I would spend a lot of energy. Everything would matter so much to me. Whether it was wins or losses, it was very difficult to live in this constant emotional bombing from the inside."

Kostyuk credits psychotherapy for helping her change her mentality. "It's not an easy road. It's a very ugly road, I would say. But I always knew how I wanted to be on the court, how I didn't want to be on the court.”

Gone are the days when a "clay court specialist" was destined to win the French Open. Yes, clay court specialists may have an edge, but more and more tour players have become proficient on more than one surface. And with Swiatek not in her top form at the moment, the upcoming French Open feels less about the Polish star and more about mystery.

This is not to count Swiatek out. Last year, people were ready to count her out in a big way, and her response was to win Wimbledon. Iga Swiatek may be struggling, but she still understands clay, and she still has the mind--and the experience--of a champion. 

In 2022, Swiatek won Rome, then went on to win in Paris. In 2024, she won Madrid, then won another French Open title. But--even though they are both 1000 events--winning Rome and/or Madrid does not appear to make a player any more likely to win at Roland Garros. The Madrid conditions, in particular, are different, because of the altitude.  

Who else, besides the above-named players, has a reasonable chance to win in Paris? If 2021champion Barbora Krejckova were healthy, I'd give her a definite "yes," but she has fallen prey to the Czech injury/illness curse. However, her countrywoman, Karolina Muchova--who is currently enjoying good health--is certainly a candidate, as are defending champion Coco Gauff  and last year's runner-up, Sabalenka.