What a difference a year makes

Last year, for the first time in Open Era history, none of the top four Wimbledon seeds made it to the quarterfinals. This year, the top four seeds are competing in the semifinals. Two of them have won many majors, and the other two have had to settle for coming very close. The main argument among afficianados of women's tennis is: Will Venus defend, or will Serena win? That's an argument worth having, but first--the sisters have to play their semifinal opponents.

Venus Williams vs. Dinara Safina: It doesn't get grander than this--the defending champion competing against the world number 1 for a place in the final. The world number 1 is a bit of a surprise; in the past, she has never gone beyond the third round in London. Had Sabine Lisicki--her quarterfinal opponent--not been so anxious, or had she been slightly fitter, there might well have been an upset. But there wasn't, and now the top seed faces the woman widely known as the best grass player of her generation.

Safina defeated Williams earlier this year in Rome, but that was on clay, where Venus does not rule. The world number 1 is fond of saying that she knows what to do--be aggressive--but she often doesn 't get around to doing it until later in the match. Following that pattern would be deadly against Venus Williams, who is the picture of aggression from the moment her feet hit grass. Waiting for Williams' forehand to go awry on this surface isn't a good strategy, either. And not serving at your very best won't work, either.

One thing Safina has going for her is that there are not many expectations of her in this tournament. She has had some good moments at this Wimbledon, which should add up to increased confidence. She is not the favorite in this semifinal match, a fact which might take some pressure off of her. Top form is required, however, if she is to seriously compete with Williams.

Elena Dementieva vs. Serena Williams: There has been as much silence about Dementieva as there has been talk about her opponent. The 4th seed has gone quietly about her business at Wimbledon, not dropping a set in five rounds. She was a semifinalist last year, too, losing in straight sets to eventual champion Venus Williams. Though Dementieva's serve has improved significantly--she even hits aces now--there are days when she still has problems with double-faulting. Yesterday, in fact, was one of them.

Williams defeated Dementieva in the semifinals of the Austalian Open this year, and is 5-4 against her, winning their only grass surface match in 2003 (Dementieva won their only match on indoor carpet). Dementieva, like Williams, is a great mover, with good anticipation. She can keep up fine in an exchange of heavy groundstrokes, and has been known to find a keen angle when she needs one.

In the area of mental toughness, Dementieva stands out--not as extremely mentally tough, but as somewhat of an anomaly. For years, it was a given that if a match went to three sets, Dementieva would win it--her opponent might as well start thinking about what to have for dinner. Her other notable demonstration of mental toughness concerned her wayward serve. She could double-fault three times in a row, and go right on and win the game.

But during certain periods, Dementieva would collapse mentally, allowing opponents to overtake her. Ironically, as her serve improved, her mental game diminished, making her--once again--one aspect shy of real greatness. These days, one is never sure what to expect from her in the psychological area. Earlier in the year, in Charleston, she dramatically reversed her fortunes in a semifinal match against Caroline Wozniacki, only to melt away when she was on the verge of winning.

Dementieva has worked a lot in the last year, not only on her serve, but on her fitness. She struck me as the last player who needed to work on her fitness, but I think it was strength--not endurance--that she wanted to increase.

Williams is a two-time Wimbledon champion, and she is also last year's finalist. This week, she has played superbly. In her quarterfinal match against the potentially dangerous Victoria Azarenka, she was in total command from the moment she heard "Play." In Dementieva, she has a worthy opponent who can perhaps challenge her.

When Dementieva lost at the French Open this year, a reporter asked her if this loss was one of her biggest disappointments. She laughed, and said "There have been so many." The Olympic gold medal winner has never won one of the four majors. She keeps popping up in the final rounds, however, because of her considerable talent and athleticism. If Williams continues at her current level, Dementieva will have to be as tough as she has ever been.