Same as it ever was

It’s been a rocky few months for @MariaSharapova with lots of frustrating injury issues…but she’s back to winning big match on the big stage pic.twitter.com/EqsICVtJTI

— Jimmie48 Photography (@JJlovesTennis) August 29, 2017

Letting the days go by (same as it ever was)
Letting the days go by (same as it ever was)
Once in a lifetime
Letting the days go by
Letting the days go by

From Once in a Lifetime

Byrne, Eno, Frantz, Harrison, & Weymouth

It's been seventeen months since Maria Sharapova announced that ITF had given her a two-year ban. It's been at least eighteen months since the ITF tried to give her a four-year ban. It's been seventeen months since WADA president Craig Reedie made extremely prejudicial remarks about the Sharapova case--remarks that were never investigated. It's been at least eighteen months since all other athletes who took Meldonium were let off the hook. And it's been ten months since the Court for Arbitration of Sport reduced Sharapova's suspension, citing "no significant fault or negligence."

And, to this day, no legitimate scientific evidence has surfaced to prove that Meldonium is a performance-enhancing drug. 

In most of the free world (the U.S. is questionable, for sure), evidence is required to convict someone of a crime. But in the tennis world, hatred of a person one has never met seems to be sufficient. The attributes that have been projected onto Sharapova would make a giant movie screen explode. 

But, to borrow from Adrienne Rich, we now have "the thing itself and not the myth," and the thing itself is alive and well, thank you very much. Just ask 2nd seed Simona Halep, who lost to Sharapova for the seventh time last night on Arthur Ashe Stadium at the U.S. Open. It was a great match, very well played by both competitors. It could have been a final. Halep has nothing to be ashamed of, though it has to hurt to leave Flushing Meadows so soon. I called Sharapova the wild card from hell, and last night, she was just that. 

Dressed in crystals and lace (love the crystals, hate the lace), the five-time major champion and holder of a Career Slam appeared to have overcome her forearm disability. She looked, in fact, like the 2006 Sharapova who won the event. Next for Sharapova is Timea Babos, who isn't usually an easy opponent. It will be interesting to see how far the Russian star goes during her stay in Flushing Meadows. But regardless--she's back.

The other big news regarding the draw is that defending champion Angie Kerber is also out in the first round, the victim of big-hitting Naomi Osaka. It wasn't a surprise. Kerber hasn't been herself in ages (except for that extraordinary match against Ekaterina Makarova in Cincinnati, which the German lost). 

And though not quite as big, there was also bad news yesterday for 7th seed Jo Konta, a contender for the title, who was shown a first round exit by Aleksandra Krunic, the relentless Serb who knocked Alona Ostapenko out of Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago.

The U.S. Open takes place during hurricane season, so there's frequently an issue of rain, and the second day was almost completely rained out. Top seed Karolina Pliskova made it to the second round, as did French Open champion Ostapenko, and Madison Keys.

Now it's all about catch-up because of the rain. Yet to play their first round matches are Aga Radwanska, CoCo Vandeweghe, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Elina Svitolina, and Dasha Gavrilova.

The pattern continues, and I like it

.@KaPliskova leads an incredible open @usopen field!@WTA_insider analyzes the draw--> https://t.co/rzUfPKLefR pic.twitter.com/7zgN1yTtDY

— WTA (@WTA) August 26, 2017

We're approaching the last major of the season, and--once again--it's hard to predict who will win it. I like this mystery scenario. For one thing, I can relax--my top two favorite players, Petra Kvitova and Aga Radwanska, aren't going to win the U.S. Open. And as much as I'd love for Maria Sharapova to win it, that's not likely to happen, either.

I am anxious about a couple of my other top favorites, though. Neither Angie Kerber nor Simona Halep looks like a clear pick to win. Kerber, though she's playing better (her Cincinnati match against Ekaterina Makarova featured stunning tennis from the German star, even though she lost), still isn't in champion mode. And Halep, who has been playing quite well, had a meltdown in the Cincinnati final. Kerber is, of course, the defending champion, which probably doesn't help her.

But consider who could win.

Yes, Halep--if she arrives in the right state of mind remains in it for two weeks. But did the Cincinnati loss to Garbine Muguruza do too much damage? Of course, the Romanian's first task will be to the shake off Wild Card from Hell Sharapova, who has a 6-0 record against her.

Obstacles also await in the form of Jo Konta (if she can get past pesky Serb Aleks Krunic, in the first round), suddenly on-fire Julia Goerges, comeback wonder Sloane Stephens, and ever-dangerous Dominika Cibulkova, who just barely missed winning New Haven. There are some potentially difficult tasks ahead for the tense Romanian, who is seeded number 2 in the draw. Also, Konta is a contender in her own right.

.@GarbiMuguruza managing expectations ahead of @usopen--> https://t.co/HCSrbMXYZQ pic.twitter.com/lOyq3LiY24

— WTA (@WTA) August 25, 2017

And speaking of Muguruza--she now has a chance to add a third major to her short (but I expect to get longer) list of huge victories. The Cincinnati champion, seeded 3rd, has an interesting draw in that her quarter is filled with players who don't win majors, but who delight in preventing others from winning them. Ekaterina Makarova (who probably could win one if she really put her mind to it), Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, Alize Cornet, Caroline Garcia, and the hard-hitting Camila Giorgi are all there, waiting to make Mugu's life miserable.

And then there are the more serious contenders in the Spaniard's quarter: Caroline Wozniacki and Venus Williams. Muguruza can overcome all of them, provided she stays in her recent mode.

World number 1 and top seed Karolina Pliskova, 2016's runner-up, is definitely a contender, though some of her 2016 shine has faded. But the Tall Cool One may like it like that. She has a pretty good draw, but it isn't without its dangers.

One of those dangers is 2004 U.S. Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova, who--on a given day--can still beat anybody, and there have been more "given days" lately. Kiki Mladenovic is in Pliskova's quarter, and--a few months ago--I would have cried "Danger!" but the Frenchwoman has been in a decline lately ("Instant karma's gonna get you..."). Also dwelling in the Czech's quarter is CoCo Vandeweghe, who has the ability to win the U.S. Open--or go out in the first round. And finally, I never underestimate Lucie Safarova.

Another strong contender is 4th seed Elina Svitolina. The Ukrainian star has risen steadily, and she recently won the Rogers Cup. Svitolina now sports a fine serve to go with that wicked movement, and could very well win her first major in Flushing Meadows. But who might be in her way? That would be New Haven champion Daria Gavrilova, Madison Keys, Alona Ostapenko (yes, she's come down from her Parisian cloud, but she could strike again at any moment), and former world number 1 Kerber. I should also add Shelby Rogers, who has a real flare for bringing down the mighty in majors.

An argument can be made that Keys will come out of that quarter and not Svitolina, and it's a valid argument. Not quite as strong an argument can be made for Kerber, but it, too, is valid. One never knows.

She's playing whom?!

The 2017 U.S. Open first round draw is maybe the most jaw-dropping major first round I've ever seen. There are so many upset possibilities, and--conversely--so many ways that truly good players will be forced to leave the tournament.

Here's a look at the first round matches that have my attention:

Monica Niculescu vs. Kiki Mladenovic
Earlier in the season, I would have called this "interesting," but would have considered a win for Mladenovic. But the Frenchwoman has been so off lately that an opening round against trickster Niculescu could mean big trouble for her.

Aga Radwanska vs. Petra Martic
Normally, I would overlook this one, but after Martic's Wimbledon quarterfinal run, I'd say that anything is possible, especially when we consider Radwanska's shaky season.

Alison Riske vs. CoCo Vandeweghe
On paper, this belongs to Vandeweghe, and Vandeweghe should go pretty far in the draw, but--she can be off, a first round is nerve-wracking for any player, and Riske tends to like these big events.

Elina Svitolina vs. Katerina Siniakova
Svitolina is another player who should go far--very far--in the U.S. Open, but she could wish for an easier first round.

Naomi Osaka vs. Angelique Kerber
I like the defending champion for this, but again--she could wish for something a big easier for an opening round.

Monica Puig vs. Mirjana Lucic-Baroni
This has the possibility of lasting a long time. It also has the possibility of being over fast. I'm going to go with the first possibility, though. Both players like to fight, and it could be very competitive.

Heather Watson vs. Alize Cornet
One never knows which Heather is going to show up. If it's the "I almost knocked Serena out of the U.S. Open" version, this could be good, given that the Frenchwoman will fight to the end.

Jo Konta vs. Aleksandra Krunic
If Krunic plays in Flushing Meadows the way she played in Cincinnati, Konta will have her hands full. At the Western & Southern Open, the big-hitting Serb knocked out two French Open champions in a row, and engaged in a real knockdown dragout against Alona Ostapenko.

Ana Konjuh vs. Ash Barty
This could also be a close match.

Sloane Stephens vs. Roberta Vinci
Again, on paper, this is a Stephens win. But Vinci is tricky, and she has some very fine U.S. Open memories. Depending on the feel of the court, Stephens' state of mind, and who knows what else--the Italian might be troublesome.

Maria Sharapova vs. Simona Halep
The tennis gods are having some fun here, for sure. This is not so much a "popcorn match" as it is a "pour me a double" match. Wild card Sharapova is rusty and has been riddled with injury for some time. A week ago, I would have sent her out, maybe even in straight sets. But after Halep's huge collapse in the Cincinnati final, there's no knowing whether her head (I'm not worried about the rest of her) can withstand a first-round encounter with the likes of Maria. I'm just hoping the match is played when I can watch it (I have bad luck with this sort of thing). Or maybe I should hope it's played when I can't watch it, since I hate the thought of either of them losing).  

Notes on Muguology

Muguruza was always going to happen.

The foot injury slowed down the Spaniard's path to stardom, and she did herself no favors with her tendency to become very negative and then "go off" in the middle of matches.

Mugu, verb: To wander one's territory in a chronically sullen state, e.a., "No I don't want any trashy tapas--I prefer to mugu in my room"

— Diane Elayne Dees (@WomenWhoServe) May 2, 2016

Photo by Leslie Billman

But even with all the muguing around on court, there was still the talent, and the poise, and that easy-to-watch fluidity that comes along once in a great while. When she won the French Open, it was hardly a surprise.

Nor was it a surprise that the obviously emotional Spaniard retreated somewhat after winning a major. We saw this reaction after Petra Kvitova won Wimbledon the first time. Once you win a major, you're a celebrity and once you're a celebrity, your life changes, and adjustments must be made. This is especially true in an age when communication is widespread and rapid, and marketing is everything.

When Muguruza won Wimbledon, she created a startling WTA statistic: 50% of her titles were majors. And of the other 50%--two tournaments--only one was a premier event. She had become the ultimate "big stage" player. Would this odd pattern continue? The answer appears to be "no." Since winning in London, the Spanish star has looked more consistent and relaxed, and she has learned to embrace her stardom with a bit more ease. Also, she just won another tournament--a big one.

Muguruza is an unusual combination of poise and emotional fragility. Right now, the balance is tipped way over to the poise side, but it would be unrealistic to believe that it won't sometimes tip over to the other side. This is also perfectly fine. Muguruza made it clear this week that she's glad to own all of her emotions, and that doing so feels like the natural thing to do. It is, of course, and it was gratifying to hear her say this.

This week marked a turning point for Muguruza: She won her first tournament in the USA. Always before, she said, she entered the U.S. hard court season ready to play, but things just didn't go well for her. Now, she's the Cincinnati champion. Asked how long it took her to become comfortable during today's final, she immediately replied, "from the first moment." Muguruza had already saved three match points in two consecutive matches--perhaps the hard part was over for her.

A little over a year ago, I said that the Age of Mugu wasn't quite upon us (obviously, I thought--even then--that there would be such an era). But it appears to have arrived. This doesn't mean that she'll dominate--there are too many other really good players waiting for their moment, with Karolina Pliskova first in line. And one, Alona Ostapenko, has already sneaked in. But the Spaniard has already won two majors on two very different surfaces, and she possesses that je ne sais quoi that makes me look forward to what I think will be a notable career.

The Elegant Assassin leaves her mark on Simona Halep--and Cincinnati

Photo by Leslie Billman

The first set of the Western & Southern Open championship match seemed to last about as long as the opening ceremony, which featured the performing of three national anthems. Simona Halep failed to win on any of her five second serves, and she won with 58% of her first serves. In contrast, Garbine Muguruza served up a storm and broke Halep twice. The Romanian had no break opportunities.

Photo by Leslie Billman

   
I'm sure I wasn't alone in thinking that the second set might represent a "clean slate" for Halep, but Muguruza remained steady and let Halep implode. In just under an hour, 4th seed Muguruza defeated 2nd seed Halep 6-1, 6-0. The Wimbledon champion hit five winners and made three unforced errors.

Photo by Leslie Billman

I expected Muguruza to win this tournament, but I didn't expect this final. As I wrote yesterday, it may be better for Halep not to enter the U.S. Open as the world number 1, but, regardless, this has to be a terrible loss for her.

After the final, Halep said that she didn't do what her coach told her to do--that she just wasn't confident enough to execute his suggested plan. She was filled with praise for Muguruza's performance, but said that she felt shame over the scoreline, even though she knows that these kinds of losses are part of the game.

"I don’t want to go down too much and I don’t want to analyze too much," Halep said. "Maybe I feel the pressure and don’t realize it, maybe i just played bad."

Asked whether she thought she could develop any kind of control over whether she has confidence in a given match, the Romanian star smiled and said "I am like this in real life--up and down, every day."

The world number 2 said she feels no physical fatigue, but she needs some mental rest. "I leave with positives," she said.

Had Halep won, she would have taken over the number 1 ranking.

Tomorrow's Cincinnati final: featuring Halep, Muguruza and Pressure

"Pressure is a pain," Garbine Muguruza said when asked to talk about how she's handling it these days. She went on to say that it's also a good thing because it involves hope. Both finalists at the 2017 Western & Southern Open know something about both hope and pressure, and both factors will play a role in tomorrow's final.

After she won the French Open last year, Muguruza obviously had to struggle with the pressure of having won a major, and she's been quite open about it. But after this year's Wimbledon win, the poised Spaniard settled into her celebrity, and made a commitment not to be a victim of it. This week in Cincinnati, Muguruza's comfort level has been obvious. She's been confident and fluid, and her star power has been evident at all times.

Halep, on the other hand--despite what she might say--rarely appears to be comfortable on a consistent basis. A perfectionist who is hard on herself and always striving to meet the expectations of her native Romania, the world number 2 is known to stray far too close to the Cliffs of Simona, as The Backspinner would say. She made a brief venture there yesterday, in her quarterfinal match against Jo Konta, but pulled herself back before something really perilous occurred.

Now that Karolina Pliskova is out of the tournament, Halep can succeed her as number 1 in the world--if she wins the final tomrrow. Pressure? Halep wants the ranking, we know that. I have to wonder, though: Would it be easier for her to enter the U.S. Open without being nunber 1 in the world?

None of us knows the internal pressure felt by Muguruza, but there are a couple of external factors (other than the obvious one of wanting to win the tournament) that come to mind: As the new Wimbledon champion and the holder of two major titles, Muguruza is "expected" to win. Also, she has never won a tournament in the U.S.; indeed, this is the first time she has reached a final in this country.

Both Muguruza and Halep had byes in the first round. To get to the final, 4th seed Muguruza defeated Beatriz Haddad Maia, 16th seed Madison Keys, 8th seed Svetlana Kuznetsova (in one of the best match of the tournament), and top seed Pliskova. 2nd seed Halep defeated Taylor Townsend, 15th seed Anastasija Sevastova, 7th seed Jo Konta, and wild card Sloane Stephens.

No matter who wins tomorrow's match, both women are clear contenders to take the U.S. Open title, as is Karolina Pliskova. And the fans in Cincinnati can expect a high quality final.

Halep to play in her second Cincinnati final

.@Simona_Halep ONE win away from World No.1--> https://t.co/jW3td6oCr0 pic.twitter.com/4aqe8BMpWL

— WTA (@WTA) August 19, 2017

Simona Halep, seeded number 2 at the Western & Southern Open, easily advanced to the final this evening when she defeated wild card Sloane Stephens 6-2, 6-1. Halep said that yesterday's quarterfinal match against Jo Konta had given her confidence, and that she was "feeling the court" from the  moment she stepped onto it today.

Halep reached the final in 2015 and lost to then-world number 1 Serena Williams. Last year, she made it to the semifinals, and was defeated by Angelique Kerber. Kerber, who would soon win the U.S. Open and become number 1 in the world, lost the 2016 final to Karolina Pliskova, the current number 1. Pliskova lost today to Garbine Muguruza. If Halep wins the Cincinnati final, she becomes number 1 in the world.

So maybe set that to music.

Halep has her eye on that number 1 spot, though she stated in her press conference today that winning a major is still her main goal. But, regarding the number 1 ranking, she said: "I am so close, I really want it."